It looks like the Czech plan to supply Ukraine with shells on the foreign market will be implemented.
France has agreed that help here and now is preferable to waiting for the European industry to reach the planned 1.5 million rounds of ammunition by the end of 2024.
All 4 major European producers – Spain (Expal), France (Nexter Ammunition), Germany (Rheinmetall), plus the joint Finnish-Norwegian company Nordic Ammunition Company – are backlogged with orders for up to 30 years.
Building new plants and increasing production requires framework contracts and government guarantees that these hundreds of thousands of munitions will be purchased many years from now.
After all, there is a war today and no war tomorrow, while investments in the industry can take decades to pay off.
However, Berlin has already begun to sign contracts with manufacturers, a line is being built in Lower Saxony to produce 200,000, the Finns are expanding their site for artillery corps in Sousvallo, and the Spanish subsidiaries of the Germans are also actively scaling up their lines.
Of course, Ukraine will not be able to keep up with all the production, as it needs to restore the EU armies’ stocks and create reserves for a possible conflict with Moscow – the Bundestag website predicts that it could last for many months.
Therefore, the purchase of half a million 155 mm and three hundred thousand 122 mm ammunition from the warehouses of notional India, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa and Pakistan can quickly solve the problem of the Defence Forces’ limits on the contact line without diverting resources from EU rearmament.
It is unfortunate that Israel’s Elbit Systems is likely to drop out of the process, as they have incurred significant costs in the Gaza operation.
Situation at the frontline
On the frontline, after the fall of Avdiivka, the enemy occupied Stepove and Lastochkino, and clung to the outskirts of Orlivka.
He broke in from the flank on the outskirts of Krasnohorivka, near the asphalt plant and cemetery, capturing the first streets in the private sector on Zaliznychna Street.
A one-and-a-half tonne bomb was dropped on the brick (refractory) plant.
At both points, we counterattacked and knocked out the enemy, did not allow them to gain a foothold, destroyed and scattered them. There was a counter-battle when the DShV tanks ran into Russian armoured vehicles and destroyed them, as well as a sweep of the private sector.
The Russians are rushing to Kurakhove and Karlivka reservoirs, have established themselves on the outskirts of Ivanovo, and are trying to retake Robotino – armoured assault teams have entered twice, and both times they were “unwound”.
The war for initiative in the air
In 11 days, we claimed 13 downed enemy aircraft, Su-34 and Su-35.
The active use of aviation results in losses, which are heavy, given that there were one and a half hundred new aircraft in service, plus pilots who have not been trained for months.
There are those who doubt these numbers, arguing that before the “birdfall”, the observers reported two dozen confirmed shootdowns of these types of aircraft.
But we didn’t have three Petriot batteries, four launchers and one SAM-T battery at the time.
100-160 km is a sufficient distance to fly out of an ambush and not come under return fire.
At the same time, there was the first confirmed hit on a Nassams missile system by the Russians, and a Buk was also hit – we have drawn them closer to the air defence line, we are taking risks and suffering losses, this is war.
Cast iron matters
Of course, each downed plane means dozens of arrivals of half-tonne bombs per day, even if they are not shot down.
The Russians will not be able to reliably uncover our air defence ambushes, and we will not be able to guarantee the landing of their modern aircraft while they are dropping planning bombs 50 kilometres away.
The defence forces are lucky that the accuracy of the UMPK is far from JDAM, otherwise the frontline would certainly fall apart in the area of their efforts.
Because the explosion of a half-tonne bomb in a circle of 10-20 metres is death, regardless of the dugout or even the pillbox.
So far, they have not reached Western accuracy, although they are working on it.
There is also an acute shortage of ammunition on the long front, due to regular attacks by small groups in the north, cross-border shelling in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, supplying a chain of bridgeheads near Krynky, dachas on the left bank, and holding back the offensive on the Donetsk front.
In addition, we need ammunition for counter-battery operations, covering enemy drone crews, destroying electronic warfare stations, and constant work on enemy attack aircraft.
But when the enemy has an advantage in the air, in the number of large-calibre rounds and storage equipment, it is difficult to fight, and there are heavy battles on the line.
A coalition of shells
The fact that the Czech plan has been approved is a great success and an urgent need.
Belgium and the Czech Republic will allocate €300 million. It is not yet clear whether the UK’s initiative to allocate £245 million is the same plan or an investment in its own manufacturer. Norway has also joined the coalition.
The required $2.5-3 billion should not be a problem if there is a “coalition of the willing” of 15 countries.
In addition, there are special munitions on the market, such as precision-guided munitions, mine placement, various anti-tank and submunition carriers.
Globalisation is not just about Chinese drone kits.
In general, Europe continues to step up its efforts to counter Russian aggression. Increased ammunition production, framework contracts, and purchases on the global market will lead to a drop in unit prices.
the “shell hunger” of the Defence Forces will be overcome with the launch of new factories in the EU, free market purchases and joint ventures (for example, our Western Powder and Explosives Corps). When the first batch of shells arrives in a few weeks, it will be like a blood transfusion, with the bulk of the supply coming before winter 2025, when production in the EU will start.
Author: Kyrylo Danylchenko