The adoption by the US House of Representatives of a bill to help Ukraine is one of the biggest news of recent days, which our country has been waiting for. Kommersant Ukrainsky has reviewed the Western media’s coverage of Ukraine’s prospects on the battlefield and what we can expect in the near future if the aid bill is finally passed.
Reuters: Ukraine to get strong defence position for 2024
The agency’s article states that the upcoming package will help Ukraine maintain its defence.
“A senior European security source said that if Ukraine receives new aid from the US and EU, the likelihood of preventing a major Russian breakthrough over the next 12 months will be ‘quite high’,”
– the newspaper writes.
Western analysts believe that acceptance of US aid will help Ukraine to defend itself until the end of the year and prepare for future attacks.
“Essentially, what we’re looking at in 2024 is as strong a defence position as possible, but recognising that the Ukrainians are likely to lose some ground to the Russians. This is a much less favourable position than the Ukrainians had hoped for in the winter in terms of this and other support. The big challenge now is to both build a strong defence and then prepare for an offensive in 2025,”
– said Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.
The Guardian: The Kremlin’s plan has failed
The British edition shares the rhetoric of its colleagues that “better late than never”. The Guardian also quotes experts who believe that the approval of aid to Ukraine will disrupt Russia’s plans and help it hold out in 2024.
“The strategic effect will be immediately felt in the Kremlin, where they now realise that their plan to wait for us to leave has failed. [Ukraine will now be able to] stabilise the frontline, buy time to grow and rebuild its army and build up its own defence industrial capacity,”
– said Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe.
Russia may have hoped that Ukraine could be “forced to peace” without US assistance. These dreams are now somewhat postponed, but Ukraine is not even thinking of relaxing on this occasion:
“The chief of staff of the Ukrainian Azov brigade, Bohdan Krotevych, said he was pleasantly surprised by the result of the vote in the House of Representatives… But Krotevych warned of Moscow’s possible response in a war. “This does not mean that Russia will not launch countermeasures in response,” he said.”
BBC: Next aid package may not pass
The BBC emphasises the eagerness with which this aid was awaited in Ukraine. In recent days, many politicians, including President Zelenskyy, have made statements in the media that Ukraine will lose this war without US aid. The upcoming aid will not give Ukraine an immediate means to liberate the territories, but it creates a window for this to happen in the future.
However, the British newspaper warns against further reliance on the US, as Ukraine may not be able to wait for such assistance one day.
“We need to think about the hypothetical possibility that the next US aid package may not pass. That’s why the UK and continental Europe need to increase their arms production to meet Ukraine’s requirements,”
– the BBC quoted Mykola Beleskov, a researcher at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, as saying.
CNN: Mike Johnson prayed (for Ukraine?)
The publication emphasises that the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson may be in trouble now that he has finally taken the right side of history. In particular, the same Marjorie Taylor Green said that she would try to remove the Speaker from office, as he allegedly cooperated with the Democrats to help other states.
Thus, Mike Johnson lost the support of radical Trumpists, but at the same time gained it among moderate Republicans.
“I am very proud of the speaker, Mike Johnson. He has gone through a transformation. At the end of the day, courage is about putting the nation before yourself, and that’s what he did. He said: “In the end, I’m going to be on the right side of history, no matter what my job is.”
– the newspaper quoted the Texas Republican, who is a strong supporter of the aid effort, as saying.
However, the attack on Johnson seems to have taken a toll on him, given that the speaker even had to run stories that before making this difficult decision, he, as a devout Christian, prayed on his knees for the success of the idea.
Bloomberg: Ukrainian government bonds rise on news of bailout approval
The publication writes that Ukrainian bonds rose in price after the news of the House of Representatives’ approval of the bailout, after hitting a one-month low the day before.
The 2026 maturity bonds, which fell to their lowest level in a month last week, rose 0.9 cents on the dollar to over 33 cents, briefly outperforming emerging market dollar bonds in early London trading. The news was greeted with relief by many.
“The package is a big relief for investors as there was growing concern that Russia would regain the initiative on the battlefield. We are not out of the woods yet. There is a risk that we will wake up to a Russian military breakthrough that will immediately raise the risk premium in European markets.”
– Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman Asset Management, was quoted as saying.
The US House of Representatives approved a bill to fund aid to Ukraine on 20 April. Now the Senate must consider the issue and sign it into law by US President Joe Biden.