On the morning of 22 March, Russian occupation forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine with missiles of various types and attack UAVs. The main target of the enemy was the country’s energy infrastructure. Komersant ukrainsky asked experts why the Russian army has launched a massive shelling of Ukrainian cities right now.
Military expert Petro Chernyk said that the Russians will continue to launch missile attacks on our energy system until the end of the war.
“But there is a nuance – there are a lot of emotions today. We have forgotten the so-called dark six months: let’s remember October 2022 – March 2023. The attacks that took place today and those that took place then are disproportionate. On a human level, yes, emotions are running high, because we are human, we have this emotional element, but we must remember that war is mathematics. And in mathematics, there are no emotions, only numbers. Compared to the flurry of missile strikes that took place from October 2022 to March 2023, this cold season was, by and large, not very noticeable. Please understand me correctly and do not distort my words,”
– he said.
According to him, the Russians can produce up to 120 missiles of various types per month, the X-101, the most massive missiles they are currently using, can produce up to 60 per month, but will no longer be able to.
“That’s it. This is the top of their technological level. 120, well, if they reach 130, it will be a fantastic success for them. But these are all missiles – I emphasise. Their entire line of non-nuclear strategic missiles is within 12 items of the nomenclature. If you add it all up, 120-130 is the top of their industry. They cannot and will not be able to do more. On the plus side, there is such a thing as a timeframe for accumulation, and it is within 2 months. Plus or minus. They fired yesterday, they fired today, maybe they will fire tomorrow,”
– chernyk said.
The expert explained why this is possible.
“The main launch vehicle is the TU-95MS, there are about 60 of them in the fleet, and about 20-25 are in normal, adequate condition. The maths adds up: 13 were fired yesterday, 11 today, and 24 in total. These boards that fired yesterday did not fire today, it is impossible. Because the board went up into the air, put a load on the engines, stayed in the air for several hours, came back down, it all needs to be serviced immediately. It’s not as good as American equipment, where you can get it serviced for a few hours and it’s back in operation. No, you have to drain the oils. It’s a very difficult job. So, conditionally 60 – we subtract 25, and that leaves 35. There are 35 more cars. Can they go for what is called ultimate cannibalism? What is ultimate cannibalism – you have 35 cars, they are in a relatively poor condition, but you can make 10 more workers out of those 35 cars, but this means that they lose the other 10 forever. So the fleet of 60 is reduced by 50. Is this possible? It is possible. But it’s a double-edged sword – if they do this, it means minus 50 machines again, and the next time it’s minus 50, and then how do you provide for these 20-25 workers? They can’t produce anything, and almost everything is degraded on these particular aircraft,” he said,
– Chernyk said.
He stressed that there is a supply of missiles every two months to carry out volleys like the one today.
“But there is another nuance – the maximum volley they fired last December was 122 missiles. Even if you add up yesterday’s with today’s purely in terms of missiles, it barely reaches 130. And what a difference it makes. Therefore, the way it is now, it will be like this until the end of the war, unfortunately,”
– the expert concluded.
Military expert Oleh Zhdanov told Kommersant Ukrainsky that the strike on Kyiv was the opening of the season.
“That’s it, the game of democracy is over, Putin’s hands are free and now we have to wait almost every day. That’s exactly what happened – yesterday in Kyiv, and today all over Ukraine. And you can see that they are following this, I see a systematic attack. They knew that the effectiveness would be minimal, but the spread of information would be maximum. After all, Kyiv is the capital, all foreign missions are here, and they were all sitting in basements in their bomb shelters, in their embassies, and the whole world immediately learned about this attack,”
– the expert explained.
Zhdanov noted that today’s attack is a planned one, it is more military in nature than the one in Kyiv, and it is political in nature. “Today’s attack is of a military nature in terms of maximum damage to our energy system.
Author – Irina Shevchenko