The fierce battle for Chasiv Yar will determine much of the summer campaign of 2024. In fact, it is the gateway from Kostiantynivka and further west.
The same Kostyantynivka that is difficult to assault head-on from Horlivka in a narrow defile between the Klebanske reservoir, the Kryvyi Torets River, ponds and heights of 200-230 metres.
The city is located in a lowland, and it would be disadvantageous to start operating from the front from Horlivka – from the strongholds on the heights near Chasovyi Yar and a network of observation posts, they will strike in the flank and adjust fire, operate FPV drones and make drops.
Until then, we still have to pass through Toretsk, the old ATO frontline, a network of heavily fortified and mined villages. We remember that it is 14 km from the vineyards in Avdiivka to Berdychiv. They cannot expect a quick breakthrough.
Even if they take Kostyantynivka with heavy losses, they will still have to take Chasiv Yar, which stands at the top of the ridge and will hang over their heads.
But if it falls, there is a chance that it will be much easier to attack from the flank, bypassing Kryvyi Torets and the fortifications of the 15th.
So, like it or not, we have to attack head-on – hiding behind the ruins of Bakhmut, accumulating there, working through the city with the FAB and UMPK.
And if Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar fall, the gates to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will be open, hundreds of thousands of people will leave, and industry will evacuate or be destroyed.
It will also be a big disadvantage for morale – the Russians will be back where it all started and where they were already thrown out in the summer of 2014.
That is why this battle really means a lot.
We have the advantage of building up.
Chasiv Yar is a typical town of 13,000 people from Donbas. It has a refractory (brick) plant, a concrete plant, a vocational school, and a bus plant. That is, there are capital buildings to rely on.
Basements, technical floors of factories, and various storage facilities from the Soviet era are available.
The advantage is the height – even if it’s 230 metres, not mountains, it’s enough. Eyes, the ability to launch drones from the reverse slope and hide there. When it is impossible to create a continuous front, a network of strongholds will be effective at the dominant heights.
The advantage is in engineering support (I would like to believe that everything will be ready in months). Bakhmut didn’t fall yesterday, and Ivanivske is still standing, although partly in the grey zone – there was time to take up the shovel, organise concrete, and put up minefields and barriers.
It’s surprising that the recent attack on Chasiv Yar just made it to the suburbs by road, although most of the 30 vehicles were hit and disabled – 19 BMPs, APCs and tanks. But perhaps the route was blocked by fencing and remote demining systems.
Only a part of the city lies to the east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, even if this water barrier is not the Dnipro. There are two sections where the water goes into pipes, and it is easier to force it in those places. But concrete slabs and sloping slopes will not allow for a quick advance and easy supply.
If the pressure becomes unbearable, you can leave the eastern part (the Canal neighbourhood) and continue to hold the perimeter behind the canal.
The enemy is pulling three “bodies” towards Chasiv Yar. One to the south, covering the flank with a small river, another in the lowlands along the front, and the third north of Bohdanivka.
There they dig in and gain a foothold, and from there they run into the town in assault groups, trying to take the outskirts.
Several such assaults were repelled over the past week. The groups were partially scattered and partially destroyed. As of yesterday, they had not gained a foothold in the city itself.
The Kremlin regime has a strong advantage in aviation – a hundred UAVs a day along the entire front, including one-and-a-half tonne aircraft. Up to three dozen of them are in this section of the frontline.
That’s why they may be looking for additional Patriot batteries – everyone is looking at PAS-3s with their ability to intercept ballistics, while PAS-2s with the ability to shoot down an aircraft from 150 km away may be suitable for us.
What makes it convenient for them to attack here? They don’t need to gain altitude to make the munition fly further – without going beyond the contact line and quickly going beyond the city with its radio range.
That’s why the aviation is annoying, without any patriotic speeches.
Half-tonne bombs fly into the city, collapse buildings, break down approaches to the strongholds from the rear, and interfere with supplies.
Sometimes, of course, we also send greetings to the enemy from the air, such as the destruction of the workshops of the 100th plant in Luhansk with two cruise missiles. But the Russians dominate the line.
The enemy has a strong advantage in artillery – in the number of shells per kilometre of frontline.
This is likely to improve a little when the Czech initiative is launched, but for now the enemy is exploiting it to the fullest.
Since 2022, we have used up (not all of them have been fired, because some of them were hit by fire) at least 4 million shells, possibly 5 million: supplies from the West, supplies from the former Warsaw Pact, purchases in Asia and Africa, our stockpiles from the Soviet era, trophies.
Now the abundance is over. We are waiting for 1.5 million European shells, an increase in our production (sometimes we see small batches of obviously new products with Cyrillic on the boxes), plus the market in Asia, South Africa, etc., which was paid for by a coalition of 15 countries.
Until then, Russia will have an advantage, and we will have strict limits.
Drones cannot cover all the tasks. The enemy puts dome electronic warfare on vehicles, forms small groups of UAV fighters armed with pump-action rifles, machine guns, man-portable air defence systems and anti-drone rifles to deploy them along the route of the columns. The weather (wind, fog) can interfere. Not all of them have a night channel.
In general, the importance of Chasovyi Yar is clear – it is the flank of Kostiantynivka and the old front with good capital fortifications, pillboxes, minefields. It is a commanding height, a junction and a road to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
If the Defence Forces cannot hold the heights, which are well-prepared and covered by a canal and several factories, it will not get any easier.
We are now buying time before the American aid (the vote is scheduled for Saturday), for Germany and the Netherlands to find Patriot batteries, supply aircraft, produce missiles for Neptune adapted for surface-to-surface fire, and supply the troops with dozens of Caesars and Bohdan when the increased mobilisation and lowered age kick in.
This is an important battle and so far we are in control of the situation, despite the fact that the enemy is pushing closer to the city. The Canal neighbourhood has already been badly damaged by the FAB and artillery fire. The situation is difficult, but the Defence Forces are holding the line.
Author: Kirill Danilchenko