In the West, they say that they have almost depleted the stocks of weapons for assistance to Ukrainians. However, the analysis of the EP (European Parliament) suggests that this is far from the truth.
“Currently, the bottom of the reserves is visible. We are providing Ukraine with weapon systems quite well, and ammunition, but not from complete arsenals,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, in October.
At that time, the cost of military aid promised or delivered to Ukraine by partner countries approached $100 billion.
This sum includes, among other things, air defense systems, tanks, and other critically necessary heavy weapons, as well as protection systems, electronic warfare, projectiles, and many less noticeable but equally essential means.
The latest milestone in unlocking heavy weapons for Ukraine was the decision of Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway to provide multi-role fighters F-16. However, negotiating new arms supplies becomes more challenging, partly due to statements about the depletion of stocks, as mentioned by Bauer.
In the European Union, there seems to be some disagreement on this matter. On January 16, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed an audit of the weapons provided to Ukraine in EU countries and deemed the planned supply volumes for 2024 by most states insufficient. In Brussels, it is also believed that some countries may provide more weapons to Ukrainians.
EP analyzed data from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker project to verify what is happening with heavy weapons stocks in partner countries.
How much heavy weapons have been provided to Ukraine
The Kiel Institute gathered data on the stocks of tanks, howitzers, and multiple launch rocket systems, some of which NATO and EU countries could transfer to Ukraine.
This selection does not include aircraft: Ukraine received about 80 Soviet “Su” and “Mig” aircraft and will soon receive dozens of American multi-role fighters F-16. Also not included are transferred air defense/anti-missile systems and the missiles for them.
At the beginning of 2022, NATO and EU countries had over 15,000 tanks, about 7,000 155/152mm howitzers, and 1,600 MLRS in their arsenals. Thus, from the start of the major war until the end of October 2023, Ukraine received 5.2% of their available tanks, 8.9% of howitzers, and 5.9% of MLRS from allies.
Not all of what Ukraine receives from Western partners has been transferred from their reserves. Some of the weapons were produced during the major war, but this is the minority. Production can take years, and agreements will have to compete with other players in the market, including Western countries that contract weapons to replenish their own reserves.
Moreover, different countries deplete their reserves differently. For example, the Czech Republic has transferred almost 60% of its arsenal to Ukraine, Norway – about 30% (with promised weapons, its share will reach 53%). For comparison, the United States has transferred 5% of its arsenal. Therefore, there is still resilience in the arsenals of partner countries, but not equally for everyone.
Most dedicated partners
The cost of assistance to Ukraine also varies for different states when comparing the share of military aid provided with the size of the partner country.
The most dedicated partners in this case can be considered the Baltic countries. Although they are among the smallest members of the EU and NATO in terms of the size of their economies, they provide the highest support to Ukraine in terms of the percentage of GDP. Data also indicate another group of countries – the Scandinavian ones, which, despite the large size of their economies, are among Ukraine’s main partners in terms of the volume and percentage of assistance provided.
The Baltic and Scandinavian countries share a common denominator: they are located too close to the aggressor country.
Meanwhile, the world’s largest economy, the United States, spends less than 0.2% of its GDP on assistance to Ukraine. Although in absolute terms, it is substantial support: after February 24, 2022, Americans provided military aid amounting to $44 billion, making them the largest donor. However, their potential is far from exhausted.
DANA HORDIYCHUK, WEEKLY CHART PROJECT, Ekonomichna Pravda. Original publication: https://www.epravda.com.ua/weeklycharts/2024/01/18/708875/.