The adoption of the Ukraine aid bill by the US House of Representatives is one of the biggest news in recent days, which our country has been waiting for. A vote in the Senate is expected on Tuesday. Komersant Ukrainsky asked domestic experts what to expect at the frontline if the aid is approved.
Military expert Petro Chernyk notes that it is still difficult to predict the development of events, as there is no certainty about what kind of weapons and in what quantity the US will provide Ukraine.
“To really break the defence line, we need a large number of long-range missiles, ATACMS. Congressmen have written into law that the US government must do this – the only question is how many will be provided. If they give us 10-20 missiles, we’ll have something like what happened in Jankoi last week. This is great news, minus 5 anti-aircraft missile systems, minus the unique Fundament antenna synchronisation system, but it’s not enough. It is necessary to destroy railway trains over long distances, because 95% of everything imported into the occupation zone is brought in by rail. That’s why we need not 10 missiles, but at least 100, 200, 500. Then the front line may change as early as this summer, and at least the southern bridgehead may collapse,”
– he commented in an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainian
The expert added that, according to the partners, the first F-16s should be delivered in early summer. However, if there are only a few of them, they will not be able to seriously change the situation at the front.
“A few machines will operate as cruise missile interceptors and may even fight against carriers of the KABs, but they will not change the course of the war. Although, in fairness, it should be said that this is the largest package we have ever received in annual terms. It is bigger than in 2022 and 2023,”
– commented Chernyk.
The expert claims that it is very difficult to compete with the Russians in any supply, as they will always have an advantage in terms of weapons.
“NATO weapons are much better than Russian ones. But there is a nuance – the Russians take in quantity. Let’s take the example of guns – the Russians do not have and cannot have anything like Caesar. The maximum distance they can reach with their shells is 28 km. “Caesar can reach up to 40 km. But for one Caesar, there are 10, 15, 20 of their artillery systems. The problem is not quality, but quantity,”
– says Chernyk.
The West is only trying to catch up with Russia in terms of artillery ammunition production, and it is not easy, he added.
“Let me give you an example of artillery: at the beginning of the war, the Russians had 5,500 working barrels, while the Americans had only 1,000. The Russians had 15 to 20 million shells, while the Americans had only 2.5 million. The Russians still rank first in the world in the production of shells with 150,000 per month, while the Americans have reached 50,000. Why is this? Because the Americans focused on high-precision weapons and missiles. No one thought that after the Second World War there would be such fighting as in the Second World War. In fact, we are now mostly fighting like in the Second World War, despite the fact that drones and so on have appeared. But artillery ramparts are still 95 per cent the main means of destruction,”
– chernyk commented.
Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi believes that weapons and their quantity are a very important factor, but mobilisation is necessary for their successful use.
“Now we will receive weapons and this will stop the enemy and change the nature of the fighting. But in order for us to seize the initiative, start advancing and liberating Ukrainian cities, we need to mobilise. We have signed the law, and now we need people to appear at the front, because we have a huge shortage of people. When all the people are mobilised, when they undergo basic and professional training – it will take about 3.5-4 months – then we can expect a turnaround at the front,”
– the expert commented.
In general, he said, Russian weapons are not able to withstand modern Western weapons qualitatively, but they are superior in quantity.
“We are talking not about months, but about several years, even with quite serious help from our allies. We understand that Europe has not yet fully recovered. They are setting up production facilities, and we will receive this flow of weapons from Europe probably in 25 years,”
– added Pavlo Narozhnyi.
On 20 April, the US House of Representatives approved a bill to fund aid to Ukraine. Now the Senate must consider this issue and sign it into law by US President Joe Biden.