Winter without Russian gas: are alarming forecasts for the EU justified?
8 November 11:52
For two winters now, the European Union has successfully weathered the cold season without Russian gas, but this winter may prove more difficult, analysts and traders warn. According to the Financial Times, the main problem is Europe’s increased dependence on “volatile global energy markets” due to the switch to liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of Russian supplies. Komersant ukrainskyi asked experts about the realism of these alarming predictions.
TheFinancial Times writes that despite the fact that European gas storage facilities are currently filled to a high level, traders warn against possible risks.
“All it takes is a few supply disruptions and the situation could spiral out of control,” said one expert, emphasizing that there may not be enough reserves in case of unforeseen disruptions.
LNG, according to analysts, is a scarce global resource, so countries are competing for it, and prices are rising in response to demand. Europe is already competing with Asia to attract LNG supplies to its shores, and the competition is only getting worse as the cold weather approaches. Previous winters have been “mild” due to relatively warm weather, which has allowed high volumes of gas to remain in storage. This year, however, a harsher winter is predicted, which could increase energy consumption.
In addition, the situation is complicated by the impending expiration of the gas transit contract between Russia and Ukraine, which expires on December 31. According to forecasts, European countries may have to help Ukraine with gas supplies at the height of the heating season due to damage to its energy infrastructure caused by Russian attacks.
Another threatening factor is the situation in the Middle East, which could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for the supply of about 20% of the world’s LNG. The closure of this strait would lead to serious disruptions in the LNG market, the Financial Times emphasizes, and would further complicate the supply of fuel to Europe.
However, Ukrainian energy expert Hennadiy Ryabtsev doubts the realism of these alarming predictions. In his assessment of the situation, he notes that such statements lack sufficient justification.
“This is rather strange information. I don’t understand what kind of experts wrote about it. After all, European underground storage facilities are 95% full. Prices on the European market are competitive with Asian prices, so in any case, if there is a shortage of what is stored in underground storage facilities, it can be bought,” Ryabtsev emphasizes.
The expert also draws attention to the stability of domestic gas production in the EU.
“Production in the countries that produce it – in Norway or the UK – is going well. There are no problems. The Norwegians have actually completed repairs at their terminals. I don’t understand what such strange forecasts are based on,” he explains.
In addition, Ryabtsev draws attention to the low level of quality of materials that have recently appeared in Western publications.
“By the way, there has been a recent increase in unprofessional articles in those publications that were once considered to be leading and not to publish nonsense,” the expert comments.
