The Ukrainian armed forces continue their offensive against the border areas of the Kursk region of Russia. For the seventh day in a row, Ukrainian troops have been fighting, and according to some reports, they have advanced to a depth of up to 30 km in some areas. Against this backdrop, on 11 August, a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (ZNPP), which is controlled by Russian troops. This raised a wave of questions: could these events be related, and what exactly is the Russian side trying to tell us by setting off this fire? [komersant] turned to experts to analyse the situation.
There is no need to panic: ZNPP as an instrument of blackmail
Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko emphasises that the fire in the ZNPP cooling tower does not pose a significant threat, as the cooling tower itself is located at a safe distance from the power units, and there is nothing inside that could explode.
“There is no need to panic for now. The cooling tower that caught fire is a huge structure, a tower where the coolant is cooled. It is located 1.5 km from the nearest unit. And there is nothing inside the cooling tower that could explode. Perhaps the racists have placed some weapons there, but we don’t know,”
– Omelchenko explained in an exclusive comment 
In his opinion, Zaporizhzhya NPP has long been used by the Russian army as a blackmail tool. He stressed that every time the situation on the frontline becomes unfavourable for Russia, it starts to use the factor of nuclear terrorism at ZNPP more actively. In this context, the breakthrough of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region could be particularly painful for the Russian side, which was the reason for organising this provocation.
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Preparing for a large-scale provocation?
Political scientist Volodymyr Tsybulko believes that the fire at Zaporizhzhia NPP may be part of a carefully planned information and psychological operation that prepares the ground for a larger-scale provocation – at the Kursk NPP. According to him, the staging of the fire at ZNPP was intended to create a picture of a threat that could be used to accuse Ukraine of shelling nuclear facilities.
“In fact, this is the creation of such a threatening picture that Russia can commit subversive actions at the nuclear power plant itself and accuse Ukraine of shelling. This is a demonstration of such a model, because they brought tyres into the cooling tower, set them on fire, created an impressive picture with smoke coming out of the cooling tower, and this was supposed to cause incredible panic,”
– explains Tsybulko in a commentary
The political scientist does not rule out that this incident is a kind of rehearsal for a possible scenario at the Kursk NPP, where Ukrainian troops have already advanced several tens of kilometres. According to him, Russia could use a similar provocation at the Kursk NPP to increase pressure on Ukraine from the international community, or even to justify internal political decisions, such as mobilisation or changing the strategic goals of the war.
“It seems to me that they are thus preparing a certain picture for Kursk region, for the Kursk NPP. In order to accuse Ukrainians of shelling the Kursk NPP later,”
– emphasises Tsybulko.
According to him, these “internal decisions” may even turn out to be quite positive and desirable for Ukraine. The expert recalls a scenario previously voiced by Russian political scientist Valery Solovey. He spoke about the possibility of a man-made disaster in Russia in order to change domestic policy.
“One of the scenarios is a man-made disaster on the territory of Russia itself, which will allow them to reorient the mood of the population inside the country: we need to save Russia itself, we do not need those lands… Now, as far as I know, all the “extra” workers have been removed from the Kursk NPP. Why don’t they do something like imitate a fire like the one at Zaporizhzhya NPP in Kursk to intimidate the population? Like, there’s a big catastrophe inside Russia, and we need to curl up inside, so to speak,”
– tsybulko describes the scenario.
Thus, experts agree that the incident at ZNPP is not accidental. It may be part of a larger strategy by Russia to create tension and manipulate international public opinion. In addition, such actions may be aimed at creating pretexts for new diplomatic steps or even internal political reorientation of Russia.
Only one thing is certain: as long as ZNPP is under Russian control, nuclear security in Europe and the entire world is out of the question.
“Until Ukraine regains its territorial integrity and control over Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant – the largest nuclear facility in Europe – constant panic and high risk of a nuclear accident remain a terrible reality”
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhkna