Forecast

Lull at the front or preparation for escalation: what is known about the threat of a new offensive

“Carthage must be destroyed”. This is not a pompous quote from a history textbook, but a harsh, honest verdict on the war that Ukraine is going through. A soldier with the call sign “Sir Kirillich” who has been through the hottest spots of the frontline – Luhansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka – since 2022 is sure that while the world hopes for a “tired” Russia and looks for signals that its actions are slowing down, the enemy is already preparing for a new offensive. Is Ukraine ready for a possible new offensive by Russia and what will be the cost of any agreement with the occupier – further in the Komersant ukrainskyi article

Despite the British intelligence report on the slowdown of Russian advance in Ukraine since the beginning of 2025, the Ukrainian military does not reject the threat of a new large-scale offensive by Russia. This is evidenced by statements by border guards, military personnel, and politicians who note that the Russian army is actively preparing for new actions on the northern front, particularly on the Sumy and Kharkiv directions.

“We expect that in the near future the enemy may launch a large-scale offensive along the entire state border, including in Sumy region. We have not noticed any accumulation of personnel and equipment on the part of the Russian Federation, and there is no striking force at the moment. But we understand that the enemy is preparing,” said Ivan Shevtsov, assistant head of the 15th mobile border guard detachment “Stalevyi Kordon”

Similar concerns were expressed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio after the NATO ministerial meeting. According to him, the United States should be prepared for any development.

“If we wake up tomorrow and see that the Russians are launching some kind of offensive, then it will become clear whether they want peace or not. If not, we need to know in advance to adjust our policy,” Rubio said.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also emphasized that the Kremlin is preparing a spring offensive and is focusing on the northern direction.

“Putin is trying to buy time – he is negotiating with the United States, preparing a spring offensive. We are already recording preparations for this operation and have shared intelligence with our allies,” the Head of State emphasized.

Russia is learning to fight, and this war may not end in 2025

In an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] a soldier with the call sign “Sir Kirilich” shared his vision of the situation based on his own combat experience, having faced the war as an infantryman in 2022. He defended Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar and other Ukrainian cities.

“I saw Avdiivka fall. The Russians have maintained a frantic pace for almost a year. Now they need to regain their strength, but they have reserves. They have become more powerful,” said “Sir Kirillich”.

According to Kirill, the Russian army has changed significantly since 2022:

“They are learning. No matter how, they are getting smarter. They want to survive in those conditions. They really like to fight. It’s in their blood. And it works – it suits them. Therefore, any talk of negotiations is an illusion. Negotiations with the Russians are cheaper than the paper on which they are signed,” believes “Sir Kirilich”.

He emphasizes that the war will drag on, and we need to be prepared for this.

“I think we need to prepare to fight in 2025, and possibly longer. We are holding on only for the sake of what is behind us – our homes. Surrender will not change anything – it will only get worse. Carthage must be destroyed. Now, either we destroy them, or they destroy us – there is no third way,” Sir Kirillich summarized

Therefore, even in the face of a temporary lull, Ukraine must remain alert. The offensive can begin at any moment, and only force, not words, will stop the enemy.

“Society is old enough to hear the truth”: motivation, mobilization and problems of the system

In an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign “Sir Kirilich” shared his frank thoughts on the realities of Ukrainian mobilization, the fate of men in the occupied territories, and the need for an honest dialogue between the state and society.

“The country has not yet explained the simple truth to those who still think that it is possible to ‘get out’ of the Ukrainian army, no matter how it may sound. There are many options – to ‘cheat’, to find a loophole, to avoid. But with the Russian army, it won’t work that way,” says “Sir Kirillich.”

The soldier gives an example of mobilization in the occupied territories.

“We were leaving Avdiivka at the end of February 2024. Only a month had passed after the Russians took control of the city, and already in Ocheretyne we saw men who had been mobilized in Avdiivka itself. These were men in their 30s and 40s who simply did not have time to leave. They were dressed, given a rifle, several magazines, grenades, and thrown to the front line. The Russians take everyone, they don’t care if you have hypertension, varicose veins, or a disabled mother. They don’t care. And the Ukrainian state must honestly explain why it is necessary to fight,” said “Sir Kirillich”.

According to Sir Kirilich, the key motivation today is financial.

“It may sound cynical, but money works. It works for the Russians, and it will work for us. This is the easiest way to motivate a modern person. And our society is old enough to hear the truth,” believes “Sir Kirilich”.

However, according to the military, even this is a problem.

“I know what it’s like to be wounded and not receive proper compensation. How a commander can cut off combat pay for personal reasons. How you are hired as a freelancer and receive 680 hryvnias a month instead of 115 thousand. And all this is due to conflicts with the command, fraud with documentation,” he said.

“Sir Kirilich” calls for focusing on international experience. “We are constantly talking about NATO standards. So why not start with a standard salary for a military man? A decent, fair, stable salary.

So, despite the temporary pause in hostilities, the threat of a new large-scale offensive by Russia does not disappear. According to the military, the situation on the frontline indicates that the Kremlin is actively preparing for new military operations that could take place at any time. Ukraine must be prepared for a long war, as the enemy is becoming more powerful and adapting to the conditions of warfare.

At the same time, it is important to remember that any agreements with the Russians are an illusion, because they do not want peace. “Carthage must be destroyed,” and this means that Ukraine must fight to the end to stop the aggressor.