Protracted war: Putin gave business a clear message – ISW
21 March 10:51
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to prepare his domestic audience for a long war rather than real peace. This is stated in a report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Komersant ukrainskyi reports
In recent statements, the Kremlin has been actively discussing the fact that the negotiations will be difficult, and Ukraine is allegedly an “illegitimate” party.
“Statements by Putin and other Kremlin officials in recent days and weeks that perpetuate narratives about the difficulty of the talks, the illegitimacy of Ukrainian officials, and the divide between the United States and Europe reinforce the message that Russia expects a long war in Ukraine and peace only on Russia’s terms,” ISW said.
At a closed-door meeting with businessmen on March 20, Putin reportedly explicitly urged them “not to be naive” and to prepare for a long war, hinting that peace talks are a long and complicated process.
Publicly, Putin emphasized that one should not expect the Western sanctions to be lifted soon.
The Kremlin continues to justify the war and promotes the idea that investments in a protracted war should give a “return” in the form of territorial and security concessions in favor of Russia.
Analysts note that such rhetoric means that Moscow is not interested in ending the war, but only in winning on its own terms.
Putin wants to conquer Ukraine
Analysts note that Kremlin officials continue to spread narratives that indicate that Putin remains committed to his longstanding goal of conquering Ukraine and is trying to use the upcoming ceasefire talks to gain preemptive concessions from Ukraine and the United States. on March 20, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu reiterated his statements that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that the Ukrainian authorities must revoke the September 2022 decree banning talks with Putin before Ukraine and Russia can discuss ending the war.
Shoigu also said that Ukraine should change the constitutional provision on “territorial integrity.” Ukraine’s constitution recognizes the occupied Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as Ukrainian and prohibits the Ukrainian government from amending the constitution if these changes are “aimed at eliminating [Ukraine’s] independence or violating [Ukraine’s] territorial integrity.” It is likely that Shoigu is calling on the Ukrainian authorities to amend the constitution to allow Ukraine to recognize Russia’s occupation and illegal annexation of occupied Ukraine.
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The Russian authorities have repeatedly mischaracterized the Ukrainian Constitution to legitimize Russia’s calls for regime change in Ukraine and to justify Putin’s ongoing efforts to delay peace talks and blame Ukraine for the lack of progress toward peace.
The Kremlin is stoking tensions between the US and Europe in an effort to undermine support for Ukraine
Kremlin officials continue to work to escalate tensions between the United States and its European allies. The main goal of these efforts is to cut off Western support for Ukraine and undermine NATO’s unity, analysts say.
For example, on March 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “Europe’s plans for militarization” contradict Putin and Trump’s efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine. He also accused Europe of becoming a “party to the war.”
Earlier, on March 7, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Europe is a “militarized alliance” that deliberately fuels escalation between the West and Russia.
Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have also recently accused European countries of aggression against Russia, indicating that the Kremlin is trying to split the US-European alliance.
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Kremlin’s demographic manipulations: passportization and deportation
The Kremlin is stepping up efforts to change the demographic composition of the occupied territories of Ukraine. on March 20, Putin signed a decree according to which civilian Ukrainians who “illegally” reside in the territory of the Russian Federation and the occupied Ukrainian regions have until September 10, 2025, to “regulate their status” or leave these territories.
The Kremlin continues its passportization campaign, forcing Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship, which allows Moscow to legitimize its territorial claims. It is also actively pursuing campaigns to resettle Russians in the occupied territories to change the ethnic composition of the population. In addition, Putin has ordered the introduction of mandatory medical examinations for “foreigners” entering these territories, which can be used as a tool of pressure.
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Russification of Ukrainian children: a new stage of Kremlin policy
The Kremlin continues to forcibly Russify Ukrainian children in the occupied territories. on March 20, Kremlin Ombudsman for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova met with the head of the so-called “DPR” Denis Pushilin. She reported that 127 Ukrainian children had been sent for treatment to unknown locations, probably to Russia, and another 1,346 children had participated in the “Day After Tomorrow” program.
In addition, two youth centers have been opened in Mariupol and Makiivka, which organize events for “patriotic education” of children. Lvova-Belova proposed to create a system of placing 500 children who are currently in state institutions in the occupied Donetsk region in Russian families. It is important to note that most of these children have relatives in Ukraine, but Russia continues to ignore their rights and forcefully assimilate them into its system.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently emphasized that the return of deported Ukrainian children is a priority. The joint US-Ukraine ceasefire statement also emphasizes the importance of returning these children.
