Analytics

Zaluzhnyi and Shaptala: a greeting with deep meaning or a political message?

ANALYSIS

The former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny, is once again in the center of public attention. His congratulations to former Chief of the General Staff Serhiy Shaptala sparked a lively discussion among military experts and politicians. Some see these words as a hidden message to the current government, while others see them as a manifestation of true military friendship. At the same time, recent opinion polls show a high level of trust in Zaluzhnyi among Ukrainians, and the question of his possible return to the political or military space remains open. Read more in the article by Komersant ukrainskyi.

Valeriy Zaluzhny’s seemingly simple greeting to his friend and comrade-in-arms Serhiy Shaptala has gained resonance in Ukrainian political discourse.

“Friendship is when you kneel down only after losing a friend. Friendship is strength, because we have the truth behind us. Friendship is when you are not ashamed, which means you are no longer afraid,”

– wrote the former commander-in-chief.

In an interview with FN ‘s YouTube channel, former MP Boryslav Bereza emphasized that this greeting has a deeper meaning than it might seem at first glance.

“I join the Iron General in congratulating Serhiy Shaptala. Especially since he is not just Zaluzhny’s comrade-in-arms, but a man who gave part of his life to defend Ukraine. He has been fighting since 2014, commanding the 128th Brigade and later becoming Chief of the General Staff. It was under his leadership, together with Zaluzhnyi, that we had the greatest success in defending Ukraine,”

– said Boryslav Bereza.

The former MP also recalled the resonant dismissal of Shaptala and emphasized that Zaluzhnyi’s congratulations were not just words, but a clear message to the authorities.

“When the Iron General congratulates his brother-in-arms against the backdrop of generals’ arrests and talks about ‘knees’ and ‘not being afraid’, it is not a coincidence, but a message. And it is clear to whom it is addressed. The question is whether those to whom it is addressed have understood it. This is a great answer to those who say that Zaluzhnyi will be hacked or intimidated,”

– the activist emphasized.

He also drew attention to rumors of possible pressure on General Nayev, Shaptala and other military officers, noting that the authorities are more concerned with elections than with winning the war.

“I am interested in the public reaction to this post. Because I already know that those who were supposed to read it have read it. I liked the behind-the-scenes reaction – the authorities clearly do not like it,”

– Boryslav Bereza added.

“Maybe it’s time to bring Zaluzhny back?”

Public figure Anatoliy Tkachuk spoke out sharply about the current situation with mobilization and combat training of the military. In his post, he reminded that two years ago, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny proposed to draft 500,000 people to properly prepare them, as the war would last a long time.

“Zaluzhny was fired, the mobilization failed. Now the frontline is barely holding, people have to be mobilized drop by drop, so there is no time to train them. Those who are not trained are no longer dying, and those who are trained are already physically running out of time,”

– Tkachuk noted.

The public figure emphasized that the authorities should urgently make strategic decisions, as the situation at the front is becoming more and more complicated.

At the end of 2024, Zaluzhny’s return was also voiced in sociological studies. After all, most of them say that Ukrainians trust the former Armed Forces chief the most and see him as the next President of Ukraine.

If the Ukrainian presidential election were held next Sunday, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces and current Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom,would receive themost votes. The current president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would come in second. These are the results of a sociological study conducted by the Social Monitoring Center, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reports .

If we add up the results of the main vote and the choice of the second candidate, the top five would look like this:

• Valeriy Zaluzhny – 42%;
• Volodymyr Zelenskyi – 22%;
• Kyrylo Budanov – 18%;
• Petro Poroshenko – 10%;
• Dmytro Razumkov – 7%.

The poll shows an increase in the popularity of the military and a decline in the rating of the current government, which could significantly affect the future political landscape of Ukraine.

According to the study “Social and Political Attitudes of Ukrainians” conducted by Business Capital and New Image Marketing Group, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Kyrylo Budanov, and Oleksandr Usyk are the most trusted among Ukrainians.

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi is again at thetop of therating with 72% of trust. The second place is taken by the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov with 62%, and the third place is occupied by boxer Oleksandr Usyk (60%), whose rating has increased after his recent victory.

According to political analyst Oleksiy Holobutsky, Zaluzhny’s credibility has slightly decreased over the past 10 months (from 75% to 72%), while Budanov’s rating remains stable. Usyk, thanks to his sporting achievements, entered the top three.

“The difference between Zaluzhnyi and Budanov is shrinking – now it is only 10%,”

– Golobutsky notes.

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“Zaluzhnyi proposed an attack on the Belgorod region back in 2022”

Major General Viktor Nazarov, an adviser to the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny, said that back in 2022, Zaluzhny proposed a plan to attack the Belgorod region of Russia. According to him, the current events in the Kursk region of Russia are the realization of the same ideas that did not receive political support at the time. Nazarov said this in an interview with BBC Ukraine.

According to him, at a meeting at the National Security and Defense Council, Zaluzhny presented a detailed plan, according to which:

• first, it was necessary to stabilize the front line in Donbas without active offensive actions;
• next, to strike at military and energy facilities in Crimea and deep inside Russia;
• the next stage was to move the fighting to the territory of the Russian Federation – to the area of the junction of Kursk and Belgorod regions;
• the possibility of encircling or blocking Belgorod was also considered in order to reduce Russian attacks on Kharkiv and complicate the logistics of Russian troops in Donbas.

When asked why this plan was not implemented, Nazarov said that it was a “political issue.”

“It was enough to make a political decision. When it is made, specific areas of action and timeframes are detailed. These proposals were voiced,”

– explained Viktor Nazarov.

He also emphasized that in 2022, Zaluzhny’s ideas did not arouse interest among the top management, but now they are actually being implemented in the Kursk region.

In addition, according to Zaluzhnyi himself, the direct participation of Russia’s autocratic allies in the war against Ukraine could mean the beginning of World War III.

Zaluzhnyi and the Office of the President

The recent release of Valeriy Zaluzhny’ s book My War by Babylon Library Publishing House has become a resonant event in the Ukrainian information space. The first part of the planned trilogy reveals not only the general’s personal journey, but also the complex process of transformation of the Ukrainian army on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The book, which has already become a bestseller, touches upon a number of important issues, including the development of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in recent history. However, one of the most debated aspects – Zaluzhnyi’s interaction with the country’s political leadership – was left without direct answers. The general actually avoids the topic of relations with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his entourage, only hinting at the difficulties associated with changes in the military system. He emphasizes that the structure of the Armed Forces remained largely Soviet and was being reformed too slowly.

One of the episodes describes the general’s meeting with children from the National Library of Ukraine, who presented him with a handmade embroidered shirt. However, the author notes that representatives of the President’s Office repeatedly reproached him for such meetings.

Another significant moment in the book is the story of the decision to appoint the head of one of the military structures. In this context, Zaluzhnyi speaks directly about the growing tension in relations with the political leadership.

“My personal relationship with the country’s leadership was getting worse every day,”

– Valeriy Zaluzhnyi notes, pointing to differences in approaches to military management.

Thus, in the context of recent sociological research and the significant trust in Zaluzhnyi among Ukrainians, his possible return to the political space seems quite real. However, political tensions, including relations with the President’s Office, demonstrate the complexity of the situation in a country where the military plays an important role not only on the front line but also in political life.

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