Arms Export Ban: Will the Government Help Gunsmiths Refuse Relocation?
6 May 17:28
The opening of arms and military equipment exports will be a factor for more than 70% of companies that will motivate manufacturers to stay in Ukraine. This is evidenced by a survey conducted recently by the Technological Forces of Ukraine, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
And a political decision to lift the ban on arms exports is possible as early as May. At least, this is what Forbes Ukraine writes, citing its own sources. The founder of a drone manufacturer told the publication that “there is a general agreement from the president to open exports.”
What are the options for arms exports?
Three possible export scenarios are being considered:
– point approval (individual consideration of each contract);
– export of half of the volume of Ukrainian orders, provided that part of the proceeds is used to purchase weapons for the Armed Forces;
– creation of a separate fund to receive an additional 20% export duty.
The idea of opening arms exports has long been discussed
Back in April, the Presidential Office did not see any possibility of lifting the ban on arms exports from Ukraine. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office , spoke about this during a meeting of the LB Club.
“Until a ceasefire is reached, until we create the necessary stocks that guarantee us the fulfillment of defense tasks, I do not think we will sell weapons abroad,” said Pavlo Palisa.
The head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry, Herman Smetanin, also emphasized that Ukraine should load its own production with foreign investment and supply all the weapons it produces to the Defense Forces.
Those who produce weapons have their own position
The attitude of arms manufacturers themselves to the ban on arms exports can be seen in a survey conducted by the Technological Forces.
Among the reasons that make manufacturers think about relocating to other countries, the ban on arms exports is at the top of the list. This is the opinion of 63% of respondents. Other reasons mentioned were: small volumes of state orders when it is possible to produce more – 47%, security risks – 47%, lack of state defense orders – 44%, and other problems in the industry.
On the other hand, the predictability of government orders for several years, as well as the opening of arms and military equipment exports for more than 70% of the surveyed companies, would be a factor that would motivate manufacturers to stay in Ukraine. As explained by the Technological Forces, these two reasons are closely related, as the unpredictability of government contracting and de facto closed exports often leave private arms manufacturers’ production facilities idle.
According to the survey, as of February 2025, only 15% of the surveyed manufacturers had fully utilized production capacity. Another 60% were half-utilized. The production capacity of the remaining producers is less than 30% utilized or is completely idle.
Proposals to open exports were being prepared
Back in October last year, the President of Ukraine instructed the relevant ministries to develop proposals for the export of weapons, including Ukrainian drones. He said this in an interview with Ukrainian journalists.
At the time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he had asked the Minister of Defense to think about possible export models, while providing for certain restrictions and safeguards.
“I rule out exporting […] to someone, and then it goes to Russia. That’s one story. The second story is that it should be only among the Ramstein circle. With all due respect to the Middle Eastern countries and others, I do not believe that we have the right to export to those who did not help us,” the head of state emphasized.
The EP also reported on the creation of a working group to develop a mechanism for exporting military equipment from domestic factories. Specific proposals on arms export policy were provided by representatives of the Technological Forces of Ukraine association. It was noted that the rules should suit both business and the Defense Forces.
