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Under what conditions can Ukraine return to blackout schedules: experts’ predictions

Power outages could resume if the temperature drops to -10°C and such weather lasts for several weeks, causing a sharp increase in energy consumption. In order to avoid this, Ukraine needs to increase electricity imports and use resources rationally, particularly during peak hours.

This was stated by Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center. In early February, the energy situation became much more complicated due to Russian strikes. In the first ten days of the month, emergency blackouts were introduced at least five times.

In particular, last week there were blackouts in Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Donetsk, Dnipro, Cherkasy and Kyiv regions. The outages were short-lived and localized, mostly affecting industrial consumers, while households were hardly affected.

When Ukraine can return to the power outage schedules again, the CMU has been investigating in detail.

The main reasons for the resumption of blackout schedules

Doctor of Science in Public Administration, professor and energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev in an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrainian spoke about the main factors that could lead to the resumption of electricity blackout schedules in Ukraine.

1. Massive shelling and attacks on critical infrastructure
   The first and most significant reason is the constant shelling and attacks on energy infrastructure by the Russian Federation. According to Ryabtsev, in order to reduce the likelihood of damage to the power grid, it is necessary to strengthen the defense, in particular, to increase the number of protective equipment.

“The President spoke about at least 19 systems that Ukraine needs to strengthen its defense,” the expert emphasized.

In addition, it is also important to provide engineering protection for the most vulnerable energy facilities, such as transformer substations, as Ukrenergo has already done.

2. Prolonged cold snap and low temperatures
   Lower air temperatures are another factor that could lead to the resumption of outage schedules. The lower the temperature, the greater the demand for electricity, which can lead to restrictions, particularly in industry.
   
   “If the temperature drops to minus 10°C and below, the probability of introducing blackout schedules will be high,” Ryabtsev said.
   
   However, according to forecasts, the average temperature in February will range from -4°C to 2°C, which may reduce the likelihood of such outages.
   
3. Bad weather and natural disasters
   According to Ryabtsev, winter weather, such as snow storms, sleet or ice, can also cause blackouts in certain regions. According to statistics, in some cases, power outages due to bad weather affected hundreds of settlements.
   
4. Equipment wear and tear
   The last factor is the aging of power equipment, and the likelihood of its failure increases under conditions of intensive use. This factor can lead to blackouts of individual facilities or even entire settlements, depending on the technical accident.

According to Ryabtsev, depending on the severity of the consequences of these factors, outages can last up to two weeks, as was the case in previous cases. Usually, when outage schedules are introduced, consumers are placed in two queues, which means four hours without electricity per day.

“If the damage to the energy infrastructure is significant, the restrictions may last longer,” he explained.

Why did the situation improve in the winter?

Despite the constant shelling and low temperatures, Ukraine managed to survive the winter period without significant power outages. Ryabtsev explained that this was possible due to the preparation of energy companies and the efforts of citizens:

“Preparation of energy companies and Ukrainians, as well as favorable weather, when the temperature did not drop to critical levels, significantly reduced the likelihood of serious disruptions.”

The expert also noted that despite the difficulties with massive attacks on energy infrastructure, thanks to the right protection measures and support of energy systems, Ukraine was able to effectively adapt to the current conditions.

Arctic cold coming: how it will affect the energy sector

Meanwhile, Stanislav Ignatiev, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, spoke to KU about the threats posed by the approaching Arctic cold to the energy situation in Ukraine.

“Last week, an anticyclone formed over the Aleutian low, the coldest point on Earth, bringing Arctic cold, which is already approaching Ukraine,” said Ignatiev.

According to him, starting from February 15, Ukraine is expected to experience frosts down to -16 degrees Celsius, and such weather may last until February 20 throughout the country. Such temperatures will have a serious impact on Ukraine’s energy system.

“Average daily temperatures will drop to -10 degrees. And over the past 3 years, it has been proven that when temperatures drop to -5 degrees, the power system may experience a 2 GWh shortage of electricity during peak hours (morning and evening),” the expert explained.

How will Ukraine compensate for the energy shortage?

Currently, Ukraine can cover this deficit, which reaches 2.1 GWh, by importing electricity from European partners. However, at lower temperatures, the situation will become more complicated.

“At average daily temperatures of -10 degrees, the electricity deficit may increase to 4 GWh. This means that dispatchers are likely to be forced to introduce stabilization blackouts in the morning and evening,” Ignatiev added.

Thus, the Arctic cold coming to Ukraine will not only lower temperatures, but may also create significant problems for the country’s energy system. If critical temperatures are reached, the energy shortage may require the use of stabilization blackouts to ensure the stability of energy supply.