Something is wrong with the sanctions: Russian tankers are transporting more oil again
30 April 10:15
Russia’s oil exports have shown a gradual increase for the second week in a row. According to the latest monitoring data, in the four weeks to April 27, exports from all Russian ports rose to 3.26 million barrels per day, up 1% week-on-week. However, these figures are still 190 thousand barrels (or 6%) below the recent peak recorded a month ago. This is stated in an article by Bloomberg, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
It is noteworthy that the increase in supplies from the Baltic and Pacific ports was almost completely offset by a decrease in flows from the Black Sea and the Arctic. The total volume of sea transportation over the past week amounted to about 3.39 million barrels per day, which is 40 thousand barrels more than the previous week.
Sanctioned tankers return to work
The administration of US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from imposing additional sanctions against Russia. As a result, a significant number of tankers sanctioned under Joe Biden‘s presidency have resumed transportation of Russian oil.
According to Bloomberg, at least 18 of the 39 vessels blacklisted by the US in 2023-2024 are again regularly transporting oil from Russian ports, whereas they were previously idle after the sanctions were imposed. Several other vessels appear to have refocused on Iranian and Venezuelan trade.
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to obstruct Trump’s plans to end the war in Ukraine quickly.
Dynamics of oil supplies
During the week of April 27, a total of 32 tankers loaded 23.72 million barrels of Russian oil, according to ship tracking data and port agent reports. This was up from 23.45 million barrels on 31 vessels the previous week.
The increase was especially noticeable in Primorsk (Baltic), where the number of tankers loaded increased from 9 to 10, and in Kozmino (Pacific), where the number of ships departing also increased. At the same time, shipments from Novorossiysk (Black Sea) and Murmansk (Arctic) decreased.
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Financial indicators of exports
The gross value of Russia’s oil exports increased for the second consecutive week, rising by about $50 million (or 4%) to $1.33 billion in the week to April 27. This growth reflects an increase in both average weekly prices and shipment volumes.
Export prices for Russian Urals crude oil from the Baltic increased by about $0.90 per barrel, while the cost of cargoes from the Black Sea rose by about $0.80. The price of the key Pacific grade ESPO increased by about $1.50. The cost of shipments to India increased by about $0.40, according to Argus Media.
Geography of export flows
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those with no final destination, rose to 2.95 million bpd in the four-week period through April 27. These figures include approximately 630,000 bpd on vessels from western ports that indicate Port Said or the Suez Canal as their destination, as well as from Pacific ports without a clear destination.
Deliveries to Turkey in the four-week period through April 27 averaged about 310 thousand barrels per day, up about 30 thousand barrels from the previous week and the highest since early February.
Prospects and implications
Despite the lifting of some sanctions and the resumption of transportation, the total volume of oil supplies from Russia remains lower than last year. Experts attribute this to technical limitations, volatility in global energy prices, and the continuation of certain sanctions packages.
For the global energy market, the situation with Russian supplies remains one of the key factors of instability affecting the overall supply and demand balance. Analysts continue to closely monitor the dynamics of Russian oil exports and its impact on global prices.
Sanctions
From the Ukrainian perspective, the increase in Russian oil exports is a wake-up call amid warming relations between the US and Russia and talk of a possible lifting of sanctions against Russia as part of a future “peace” agreement.
Sanctions are the most likely way to hurt Russia over oil, including secondary sanctions against its buyers. The point of this step is to make it physically impossible for Russia to sell large volumes of oil and thus receive funds to continue its aggressive war of aggression.
The Biden administration pursued an ambiguous sanctions policy. On the one hand, it declared a number of sanctions against the Russian oil trade, but in practice, this did not prevent Russia from successfully trading raw materials with countries such as India or China. The Trump administration has not yet tightened sanctions against Russian tankers either, although such statements are made from time to time.
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