“Ukraine’s distraction manoeuvre in Kursk region has failed”, “Pokrovske defence is in danger of collapse”, and “Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces negative reaction due to Russia’s breakthrough of eastern defences” – leading Western media outlets have published a number of articles that levelled down the achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region. Moreover, they predict an offensive by Russian troops in the Dnipro region. “Kommersant Ukrainsky looked into whether it was worth looking for betrayal and failures in the Ukrainian military’s operations in Russia.
The US Financial Times published a devastating article criticising Zelenskyy for his decision to send his troops to attack near Kursk. Quoting Robert Lee of the US Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, Ukraine sent reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to fill in the gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by new, less experienced units.
Almost a month into the Kursk operation, there are definitely successes. Komersant ukrainskyi
in an exclusive interview with retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Roman Svitan, explains why Western media should not look for treachery.
“The special operation was basically conceived to catch Russian troops trying to turn around and move towards Sumy. This is a counterattack. And the troops that were assembled in that direction were intended for a defensive mission. The timing was very correct and competent. We actually exposed the Russian units that were turning around, scattered them, captured them and created a buffer zone to cover Sumy. The mission was very successful.” – Roman Svitan
What would have happened if the operation in the Kursk region had not started?
If the Ukrainian Defence Forces had not launched the offensive in the Kursk region, the Russians would now be near Sumy, as they are now near Kharkiv. That is why this operation was 100% productive, says Roman Svitan.
“If the Russians were to redeploy a sufficient number of forces and assets from the eastern front, it would ease the tension. Currently, they have transferred about 15,000 troops to Kursk region, but this is not enough to relieve the pressure. Therefore, this operation should definitely be continued: to create a serious bridgehead there, to push the Russians beyond the Seim River,” Roman Svitan
There are two options for events in the Kursk region
With the start of the operation, it was clear that either it would be an extraordinary Ukrainian triumph or a defeat for which everyone would have to answer, military expert Ivan Stupak said in a special interview with Kommersant Ukrainsky.
“Either Zelenskyy and the military will become champions who managed to turn the tide of the war with the Kursk operation, because for almost a year, the Russians have been advancing and seizing our territories every week. And with this step, turn the whole chessboard over and start playing cards. Otherwise, we will have to take the fall for everything,” Ivan Stupak
However, the battle for the town of Pokrovsk will begin in the next week or two. It really hasn’t been possible to divert attention, says Stupak. “The Russians withdrew troops where there were already too many. For example, some from Africa, Murmansk, Leningrad, Rostov, and conscripts.
“We are losing Pokrovsk, followed by the Dnipro region,” Ivan Stupak
Why didn’t the Ukrainian Armed Forces reinforce Pokrovsk instead of invading Kursk region?
Roman Svitan notes that the campaign in the Kursk region should not be linked to the situation in eastern Ukraine. He says that this is a separate operation, and that several sites need to be set up there to push for an operational breakthrough.
For example, the Russians managed to make an operational breakthrough towards Pokrovsk, says the retired Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel. “They will push into Pokrovsk and try to expand their flanks. They will push towards Kurakhove and Vuhledar. The latter is the priority for the Russians.
“A sufficient amount of forces and means have been deployed in this area, and the Ministry of Defence is making efforts to deploy a certain amount of ammunition and equipment in this direction. There is no sudden collapse of the front. An operational breakthrough is as dangerous for the Russians as it is for us. And in the coming days we will decide when it will be possible to cut off this breakthrough,” Roman Svitan
The Russians do not have reinforced flanks, and we still have a week and a half to two weeks to create problems for the Russians, Svitan says.
“If the issue of reinforcements is resolved, we will not only push them out, but also put down 50,000 Russians,” Roman Svitan
This means that the conclusion of Forbes analyst David Axe under the loud headline “Ukraine’s distraction in Kursk region has failed” is wrong.
Because: A) no one knows for sure the purpose of the Kursk operation
B) the Russians are no longer able to launch an invasion of Sumy region, which is already a victory
Roman Svitan concludes that it is high time to reverse the line of contact along the border with Russia to the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod directions. All these 600 kilometres of border should be the front line turned towards Moscow. This means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces must keep moving, they must not stop.
Author – Anastasia Fedor