Possible invasion of Ukraine from Belarus: should we expect a repeat of the 2022 scenario?
11 April 12:00
Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia massed its troops in Belarus, hiding behind preparations for joint exercises. Therefore, the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers scheduled for the fall of 2025, West 2025, may turn out to be just a screen for the formation of a new strike group.
This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, in an interview with the publication Livyi Bereh (Left Bank).
“Any training has its own purpose. One of them is the imperceptible creation of offensive military groups. Exercises are a convenient excuse to redeploy troops, concentrate them in a certain area, and thus form a striking force. This is exactly how it all started in 2022. At that time, troops were assembled to conduct maneuvers, and many hoped that after the maneuvers the Russian army would return. But when it became clear that the exercises would continue, it was a signal to me that everything had already been decided,” explained Syrsky.
He noted that it is currently uncertain whether a new offensive will be launched from the territory of Belarus, but this possibility should be taken into account. It is worth noting that in mid-September, joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus called “West 2025” are scheduled to take place, with more than 13,000 military personnel expected to participate.
Russia has no resources for a large-scale offensive
Military serviceman Yevgeny Ievlev in a commentary specially for
“In 2022, the Russian Federation planned to completely seize Ukraine, establish political and territorial control. They failed,” Ievlev reminded.
After the defeat in the occupation plans, he said, Russia changed its approach – at first it sought to seize territories up to the Dnipro River, and later focused on the so-called “minimum plan”: the occupation of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, even these tasks remained unrealizable.
“Three years of war with an army that was called the second best in the world. And Russia failed to fulfill even these tasks,” the military emphasized.
Human resources and internal problems of Russia
Ievlev drew attention to the enemy’s critical shortage of not only personnel but also combat potential in general.
“They have very big problems. Yes, compared to our resources, their potential may seem greater, but in reality the situation is quite different,” he explained.
According to the serviceman, against the background of unfulfilled goals and current losses, the likelihood of a new large-scale offensive by Russia looks doubtful.
“It is very difficult to talk seriously about the risk of a new invasion now. It is clear on the battlefield that Russia is not able to realize even the tasks it sets for itself,” Ievlev said.
Manipulations and information warfare
At the same time, he does not rule out that reports of possible offensive actions may be part of a broader information campaign.
“We are fighting the Russian Federation not only on the battlefield. This may be part of an information operation,” Ievlev warned.
He also emphasized that such statements require a very cautious approach on the part of the command and the media in order not to spread unverified or manipulative information.
“I was in Donbas a few months ago. And, frankly, it’s hard to believe that Russia is currently capable of any large-scale offensive,” he concluded.
Repeating the 2022 scenario is impossible
Roman Svitan, a military analyst and retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in an exclusive commentary for
“In 2022, we were still planning to have barbecues in May, and now we are fully prepared for an invasion from any direction. Over the past three years, we have built fortifications, laid minefields, and created supply lines – we have a fortified front line, including the Belarusian direction,” he said.
According to Svitan, a repeat of the invasion from the north, similar to February 2022, is no longer possible.
“There will be no such invasion, when ‘come in and take what you want’. The fortifications in the north are the same as those near Kharkiv or Volchansk, where the Russians did not advance a single step in 2023,” the analyst noted.
Belarus will not go to conflict – Lukashenko is not interested
Roman Svitan also drew attention to an important political aspect – the position of Belarus and its leadership.
“Lukashenko is well aware that if he gives Russia a foothold, we will immediately start destroying the Belarusian military infrastructure. Especially the energy infrastructure. The Mozyr Oil Refinery is 40 kilometers away. One blow and the entire economy of Belarus will go out like a light in a bathhouse. Therefore, he would rather lie down under a tank than allow Putin to open a front from Belarusian territory,” Svitan emphasized.
Another argument is that Russia does not have sufficient forces and means to open a new front.
“In order to invade from the north, Russia needs to redeploy troops, but now all forces are being thrown to the Eastern Front. It’s almost impossible to stop the fighting in the east to attack from Belarus,” the analyst said.
Syrsky could not answer otherwise
The analyst also commented on the statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, regarding a possible offensive from the north:
“The news agencies asked Syrsky a question, and he could not answer otherwise. But the real situation today is not a threat of invasion, but another attempt to intimidate and destabilize through information fakes,” Svitan summarized.
Thus, three years of full-scale war allowed us not only to survive, but also to rebuild our defense strategy. All key directions, including the northern one, have been fortified, possible threats have been analyzed, and response scenarios have been developed. As Svitan emphasizes, the situation is completely different now, and any attempt to repeat the 2022 offensive will end in failure for the aggressor.
