Eurovision Song Contest 2025: how the participants’ chances have changed and where Ukraine stands among them

16 May 18:15

ANALYSIS FROM

After the second semi-final of Eurovision 2025, which took place on May 15 in Basel, bookmakers have updated their predictions about the likely winner of this year’s contest. As of now, Ukraine ranks 13th on their list.

The latest changes in the forecasts can be found on the Eurovision World website.

The leaders of the rating remained unchanged – Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands. At the same time, several countries managed to improve their positions due to strong performances. According to bookmakers, the ratings were also influenced by viewers’ reactions to the participants’ performances.

Before the second semi-final, Sweden had the highest chances of winning at 39%. It was followed by Austria (24%), the Netherlands (7%), and France (6%). Israel rounded out the top five with a 5% chance of winning.

This year, Ukraine is represented by Ziferblat with the song Bird of Pray. The country is currently ranked 13th in the bookmakers’ rankings, with only a 1% chance of winning. Interestingly, a few hours before the first semi-final, Ukraine was ranked 14th.

Results of the second semifinal

After the second semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025, bookmakers’ forecasts have undergone some changes. If you compare the odds half an hour before and immediately after the show, you can see both minor and significant fluctuations in the chances of individual countries to win.

Sweden, represented by the band KAJ with the song Bara bada bastu, has further strengthened its position in the ranking – the probability of its victory remains consistently high at 38%, which allows it to hold the lead.

Austria, with Wasted Love by JJ, slightly improved its score – from 22% to 23%, retaining second place as Sweden’s main competitor.

The Netherlands remains in third place with an unchanged result of 8%.

France and Finland also retained their places in the ranking, albeit with minor changes in percentage. Instead, Israel dropped to sixth place, behind Finland, although its chances remained the same at 4%.

After the second semifinal, new countries appeared on the list of favorites. In particular, the United Kingdom, which had not been included in the forecasts before, unexpectedly rose to 11th place. Germany also joined the top 16, pushing Ireland and Australia out of the top 20 and out of the final altogether. This indicates that the events of the second semi-final had a significant impact on the perception of some participants by both viewers and experts.

As for Ukraine, represented this year by Ziferblat with their song Bird of Pray, they remained in the same 13th position with a 1% chance of winning. The results did not change either before or after the semi-final performance, which indicates a stable but rather restrained perception of the Ukrainian act.

However, the situation may still change after the final dress rehearsals. The bookmakers’ forecasts currently give a general idea of the participants that the public and experts currently consider to be the main contenders for victory in this year’s contest.

Ukraine’s National Selection for Eurovision 2025: what you need to know

Ukraine’s national selection for the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 ended on February 8, with the band Ziferblat with the song “Bird of Pray” as the country’s representative at the contest in Basel, Switzerland.

Key dates and events:

Start of application acceptance: september 17, 2024.
Number of applications received: 374 from 369 participants.
Announcement of the longlist: december 11, 2024.
Final of the national selection: february 8, 2025.

The jury was selected by online voting in the Diia app, which was attended by more than 442,000 Ukrainians. The jury includes:

Jamala
Kateryna Pavlenko (Go_A)
Serhiy Tanchynets (Bez Obmezhen).

The final was broadcast on Suspilne Kultura TV channel, Eurovision Ukraine YouTube channel and other platforms. The hosts were Maria Efrosinina, Timur Miroshnychenko and Vasyl Baidak. The pre-show was hosted by Anna Tullieva.

The following acts performed in the final of the National Selection: