EU holds back sanctions against Russian gas: how it will affect the war in Ukraine
17 April 15:26
Opinion
The European Union has decided not to impose sanctions on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, instead focusing on developing a plan to end its energy dependence on Russia by 2027. According to Reuters, this plan is to be presented in early May. How will this decision affect the course of the war in Ukraine and the Russian economy? Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev shared his opinion with "Komersant Ukrainian", emphasizing that the lifting of sanctions will not have a significant impact on the financing of Russian aggression.
The European Commission is expected to propose the 17th package of sanctions against Russia by June, although Reuters’ sources say that work on it is progressing slowly.
The last time the European Commission discussed a possible ban on Russian LNG imports with EU governments was in January, when the 16th sanctions package was being prepared.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants the EU to buy more American gas. According to Reuters, Brussels sees this as a possible lever in negotiations to persuade the White House to reduce customs tariffs.
One of the agency’s interlocutors said that the European Commission does not want to risk losing Russian LNG in order not to lose ground in negotiations with the United States.
In addition, the European Commission and EU governments fear becoming newly dependent on the United States, which is the third largest gas supplier to the EU after Russia and Norway, Reuters adds.
At the same time, European officials intend to adopt a new roadmap for the abandonment of Russian energy resources by 2027. The plan is to be announced in May.
It should be noted that liquefied natural gas from Moscow remains one of Europe’s last significant energy dependencies after the end of last year when gas supplies through pipelines through Ukraine were cut off. Last year, the EU imported record volumes of Russian liquefied natural gas, with France, Spain, and Belgium being the largest importers. This trend continued in 2025. In addition, some EU countries still import nuclear fuel from Russia.
A group of 10 EU countries has been pushing for tougher measures against Russia by imposing restrictions on natural gas and LNG. However, these efforts are complicated by the need to achieve unanimity among all 27 members of the bloc. The Commission has set itself a non-binding goal of completely cutting off Russian supplies by 2027.
How will this decision affect the course of the war in Ukraine?
“Not at all. Because the war will continue. And the federal budget revenues from sanctions will be reduced, and this is right, it is for sure, they are already reduced,” Ryabtsev says.
However, according to him, the Russian government will compensate for these losses from other sources:
“There will simply be no changes in the housing and utilities sector, no roads will be built, no repairs will be made. It’s all about saving money. All sorts of bonds will be issued, loans will be issued, and everything else will be done. But at the same time, the costs of the war will be maintained, and maybe even increased,” the expert explains.
How much does Russia earn from LNG?
When asked how significant the Russian budget revenues from the sale of liquefied natural gas are, Gennady Ryabtsev answered:
Not much. If we talk about the share in the liquefied gas market, which is one third of the European market, then last year it was 18% in Russia. That is, 15 billion cubic meters. Multiply that by the gas price, say, 300 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and you get the amount: 300 dollars per thousand cubic meters and 15 billion cubic meters. And you get… well, that’s what we managed to get out. And not everything is transferred to the budget, of course, there are also expenses for all this.
According to rough estimates, revenues from the export of 15 billion cubic meters of LNG at a price of $300 per thousand cubic meters amount to about $4.5 billion. However, only a fraction of this amount goes to the Russian budget after taking into account the costs of production, transportation and other operating expenses.
Russia’s share in the European LNG market
Speaking about Russia’s share in the European liquefied natural gas market, the expert noted:
“The share is somewhere around, a little less than 10%. It is relatively small.
This confirms that Russian LNG has a relatively small share of the European market, making it a less critical source of revenue for the Russian economy compared to other energy sources such as pipeline gas or oil.
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Why won’t the lifting of sanctions affect the war?
The EU’s decision not to impose sanctions on Russian LNG is due to several factors, including resistance from some member states and uncertainty about alternative sources of supply.
However, according to Gennadiy Ryabtsev, this will not have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to finance its war against Ukraine. The Russian government is likely to compensate for the losses from sanctions through other sources of revenue, such as issuing government bonds or domestic borrowing. At the same time, spending on social programs, infrastructure, and utilities may be cut to maintain funding for military operations.
What does the EU’s 2027 plan mean?
The European Commission plans to develop a roadmap to completely end dependence on Russian energy by 2027. This plan envisages a gradual diversification of gas supply sources, in particular by increasing LNG imports from the United States and other countries.
However, according to European officials, the hasty imposition of sanctions against Russian LNG could weaken the EU’s position in negotiations with the United States on trade tariffs. Thus, the waiver of sanctions is a strategic step aimed at maintaining economic stability in the short term.
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