If Putin goes overboard: what tough steps can Trump take?
14 March 15:03
Recently, the situation between the United States and Russia has been escalating again, and many analysts are wondering what US President Donald Trump might do if he is unhappy with the actions of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin. Komersant ukrainskyi asked political analysts what Trump might do if he is irritated by Putin’s behavior.
Sanctions or radical actions?
Political analyst Oleg Lisnyi believes that Trump is currently taking a more restrained approach than one would have expected.
“Two months ago, I would have said that he would take radical actions, like what Kellogg once proposed – to transfer all the necessary weapons to force Russia to peace talks. Now I am inclined to believe that there will be sanctions pressure to begin with,” the expert notes.
He draws attention to the fact that the first steps are already visible:
“We are already seeing the first elements of it [sanctions pressure]. It’s just that he’s finalized, pardon the expression, Biden’s sanctions in the banking sector regarding the purchase of oil products and so on. But these are not his sanctions. He promised some very tough ones against Putin if he did not agree.”
Lisny emphasizes that much depends on a possible conversation between Trump and Putin.
“A lot depends on how the conversation, if any, between Trump and Putin goes today. Perhaps they will find some common ground, but I doubt it. Because in fact, Putin has said no today. Not directly, but he said no. So now the ball will be back in the American court,” he said.
According to the political scientist, Putin’s refusal to compromise may force Trump to act more decisively.
The oil strike and Pompeo’s strategy
Political analyst Taras Zahorodnyi emphasizes that Trump has already started acting, particularly in the energy sector.
“The first steps have already been taken. They went to work on oil, right? They did not extend the regime that allowed the Russians to trade oil. This is the first step. Then, as the Americans like to say, the ball is in Trump’s court, right? You said you were the coolest leader in the world, that you would provide everything? Well, so provide it,” Zahorodnyi said.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s main task is to convey to Trump the need for help. He reminds that there is a “Pompeo plan” in the pipeline – a $500 billion land-lending program that will allow Ukraine to receive the necessary weapons.
“Our task is for him to come to the right conclusion that Ukraine needs to be helped with everything possible. Pompeo has a plan in the back of his mind – a 500 billion dollar land deal, to give Ukraine anything to show that America is great again,” the political analyst said.
He also draws attention to the problems with confidence in American weapons in Europe:
“Portugal is saying, why do we need F-35s instead of F-16s if they don’t work properly? And this is a lot of money, you know. I think that the US defense corporations are now cleaning someone’s nose in the White House.”
Impact on the United States and Europe
Political analyst Taras Zahorodnyi emphasizes that the issue of aid to Ukraine affects not only international politics but also the economic interests of the United States and its allies.
“Portugal says, why do we need F-35s instead of F-16s if they don’t work properly? And this is a lot of money, you know. I think that the US defense corporations are now cleaning someone’s nose in the White House, because American weapons were bought with the expectation of a predictable US policy. And now everyone is sitting around, especially in Europe, and thinking, why do we need F-35s, which cost $125 million for a minute alone, if they will be under American control and can be shut down at any time,” Zagorodny explains.
According to Zagorodny, Trump can be motivated by his desire for greatness:
“Therefore, we need to bring him to the good idea that we need to prove that American weapons are the coolest in the world, and this is possible only against war, against Ukraine. That is, we need to put the right pressure on the United States. Of course, we all understand the greatness of Donald Trump. If we need to call him a genius, and he likes it, let’s do it. And let the Europeans buy weapons for Ukraine, or let the Americans provide weapons under a land-list to prove that they have all the weapons and they shoot where they need to and how they need to,” the political scientist said.
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Moscow against the truce: why does the Kremlin reject a 30-day pause in the war?
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin is “carefully studying” the final statements made following the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah. He urged “not to get ahead of ourselves” on the issue of the 30-day truce agreed upon by Kyiv and Washington.
Peskov also noted that a telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump “will be quickly organized” if the need arises. However, according to him, there has been no official request for such a conversation from the White House.
Commenting on the talks in Jeddah, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the main news for Russians comes not from abroad but from Moscow. She emphasized that
“the formation of the position of the Russian Federation does not take place outside the country and does not depend on external agreements.”
Russian “warlords” and ultranationalists reacted sharply to the idea of a 30-day ceasefire. Many of them, including those with Kremlin support, have spoken out against the truce, calling it unacceptable. They argue that Ukraine and the United States will use the pause to regroup and strengthen their military capabilities.
Russian State Duma deputy Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev also spoke out against the proposed truce. In his opinion, a 30-day ceasefire would allow Ukraine to rearm, which is contrary to Russia’s interests.
Thus, official Moscow and pro-Russian military analysts unanimously reject the idea of a ceasefire, seeing it as a threat to their positions at the front.
