on 1 January next year, the contract for the transit of Russian gas between Gazprom and Ukraine expires, and our country is not going to extend it. As a result, some experts have suggested that gas prices could rise in 2025. However, according to Ivan Plachkov, former Minister of Energy and Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Energy Assembly, the price of gas for consumers will not change, Komersant ukrainskyi
reports
“There will be difficulties with the distribution networks supplying Ukrainian consumers, because there will be no such pressure as now. But in principle, the algorithm has been worked out and our GTS can supply Ukrainian consumers with gas from underground storage facilities or reverse flows from European countries, Romania, etc. Therefore, gas prices will not rise,” Plachkov said.
In general, according to the former minister, the issue of gas transit has not yet been fully resolved.
“I think there will be negotiations with our European partners. I believe that the algorithm for transporting Russian gas should be changed. Namely, if, for example, Hungary, Austria or Slovakia want to buy Russian gas, the purchase should be made up to the Russia-Ukraine border. These countries need to sign transit agreements with Ukraine, because there are no such agreements now. Today, there are agreements for transit through Ukraine with Russia, and Russia is already paying us for this transit,” Ivan Plachkov believes.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian gas transmission system has been preparing to operate in the complete absence of Russian gas transit for several years: in 2023 and 2024, the Ukrainian GTS successfully passed independent stress tests.
“During two independent international stress tests in 2023 and 2024, various GTS operation scenarios were modelled, including zero transit. The Ukrainian GTS has proved its ability to supply gas to consumers in reverse mode,” the press service of GTS Operator of Ukraine LLC said.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was already negotiating the shipment of gas from Azerbaijan to the European Union through our country. However, according to experts, a possible contract with Azerbaijan has many pitfalls, which K. described in his article “Russian gas – out? Will Ukraine remain a transit country after 2024”.
Therefore, it is not known for certain whether Ukraine will be a transit country in 2025 or will remain with “zero transit”. Another question is whether Ukraine will control the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region and how this may affect gas transit to the EU.
The Sudzha gas metering station is located almost close to the Russian-Ukrainian border. It is the only operational entry point for Russian gas into Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine’s GTS operator reports that gas transit to European customers is going on as normal.
Author: Alyona Kaplina