Forecast

Macron’s Nuclear Initiatives: Will They Change Ukraine’s Security Landscape?

PROGNOSIS

European allies can provide Ukraine with a “nuclear umbrella” if they wish. This opinion was expressed exclusively for by military expert Dmytro Snegiryov.

Analyzing the statement of French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for a discussion on the possibility of Paris using nuclear weapons to protect the entire European Union, the expert noted the following.

At one time, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said that it was the presence of nuclear weapons in London that prevented the Soviet Empire from implementing its military plans and, accordingly, led to the victory of the West in the Cold War.

“Given that both the United Kingdom and France are respective members of the nuclear club, joint efforts could seriously affect Russia’s future plans. Moreover, the rhetoric of both Paris and London is unanimous,” Snegirev said.

The expert noted that the nuclear potential of these countries is insufficient compared to that of Russia. However, it is worth noting that nuclear weapons are a deterrent weapon that has a purely psychological effect. Apart from Hiroshima, there has been no other use of nuclear weapons in history. That is, the mere fact of having nuclear weapons is a kind of signal that a country is ready to use them.

Dmitry Snegirev also drew attention to the fact that even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, France’s nuclear program was “quite interesting. The point was that nuclear warheads were aimed not only at countries potentially hostile to France, but also at those that possess chemical weapons and could therefore pose potential threats to this country.

Answering the question of how realistic it is that the European allies would deploy a “nuclear umbrella” over Ukraine, the expert noted that it would depend on the position of NATO countries in terms of their readiness to deploy nuclear potential, and France, respectively, on the territory of their own countries. For example, even a rather cautious Germany has already spoken out on this issue.

“But it’s worth saying that Macron’s proposal for a ‘nuclear umbrella’ has already worried Moscow. And the Kremlin has changed its rhetoric from bellicose to ‘Macron can call Putin’. This means that Moscow is sending a political signal: we are not aiming for a military invasion of Europe directly. But it is also worth recalling the words of French President Charles de Gaulle, who said that if a country does not possess nuclear weapons while its neighbors do, it does not control its own destiny,” Snegirev explained.

That is why, according to the expert, the French president makes such statements in public.

In addition, the expert suggested that Ukraine should think about regaining the status of a nuclear power.

“Ukraine has the largest uranium deposits and plants for the production of nuclear warheads. The only issue is the nuclear reactor, but according to experts, this is a small investment. The only thing that matters here is the political will of the leadership itself,” said Snegiryov.

He also added that, theoretically, Ukraine may well follow the path of Israel, which does not officially advertise the presence of nuclear weapons. Instead, it makes it clear that it does not rule out the use of this component if necessary.

Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко

Europe is preparing for nuclear deterrence: what you need to know

on March 5, 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation, proposing to expand France’s nuclear deterrent to protect European allies. This initiative comes amidst changes in U.S. policy and growing concern over Russian aggression.

President Macron’s proposal comes amid recent geopolitical changes:

• Changes in US policy. The Trump administration’s suspension of military aid to Ukraine has called into question the reliability of American support for European security.
• Russian aggression. Macron emphasized that Russia poses a direct threat to France and Europe, stating: “Russia has become a threat to France and Europe”.

In his address, Macron outlined several key points.

Expanding nuclear deterrence. France is open to discussing the use of its nuclear arsenal to protect European partners. Macron called it the opening of a “strategic debate” on this issue.

Increased defense spending. Recognizing the evolution of the security landscape, Macron called for increased defense budgets to strengthen Europe’s military capabilities.

Continued support for Ukraine. Despite changes in US policy, France remains committed to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

Reaction and consequences

The French president’s proposal provoked a variety of reactions:

• European reaction. The leaders of Poland and the Baltic states welcomed the initiative, viewing it as a necessary step to counter Russian threats.
• NATO’s view. The proposal challenges traditional NATO dynamics, especially with regard to the US nuclear umbrella.
• Russia’s reaction. Russian officials condemned the proposal, calling it confrontational and indicative of France’s ambitions for nuclear leadership in Europe.

It should be noted that France’s nuclear arsenal of approximately 290 warheads is smaller than those of the United States and Russia. The expediency of expanding its deterrence is linked to solving several problems.

The first concerns operational control and is to ensure that extended deterrence does not jeopardize France’s independent control over its nuclear forces. The second is balancing the interests of NATO allies while maintaining confidence in France’s deterrent. And the third is the need to clearly define thresholds for nuclear deterrence to prevent miscalculations.