Exhaustion or breakthrough: what is the Kremlin’s army capable of in 2025?
22 January 15:25
ANALYSIS
General Christopher Cavoli, Commander of NATO’s Allied Forces Europe, said that Russia does not currently have the military resources to make a major breakthrough on the frontline in Ukraine. He said this during a discussion on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Is this really true and how long will it take Russia to restore its potential for a new large-scale offensive? Komersant ukrainskyi analyzed.
When asked by journalists about possible developments at the front in 2025, the general expressed confidence that Ukraine would not suffer a sudden defeat.
“I do not see the potential for a massive breakthrough. This is not a political but a military assessment. This is due to both the effective defense of Ukrainians and the difficulties of the Russian side to form sufficiently powerful offensive forces for a breakthrough,”
– explained Christopher Cavoli.
The general believes that the current year will be characterized by small offensives by both sides. He emphasized that such actions are exhausting for Russia.
“We see that it is exhausting for the Russians. No wonder they are bringing in thousands of soldiers from North Korea,”
– said Christopher Cavoli.
According to the military officer, the war will remain tense between Russia’s intention to attack and the lack of human resources. According to him, this will force the Kremlin to use deterrent weapons more often.
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Russia needs a pause and 7 years to recover
The Russian army is not able to make a large-scale breakthrough in Ukrainian defense due to significant losses of equipment, people and economic difficulties. This was stated by military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary for .
He is convinced that Russia currently lacks the resources for a rapid breakthrough at the front. The only way of waging war that remains available to the Russians is the gradual depletion of Ukrainian defense.
“What we have been witnessing for almost 16 months is a systematic push by small groups. But the Russians do not have the resources for a large-scale breakthrough. Their human potential is limited, their economy is limping along, and their equipment is being destroyed faster than it can be delivered to the front,”
– Mr. Stupak noted.
According to the expert, even after the end of the war, Russia will need at least 7 years to partially restore its military potential, lost resources and combat capability.
“No one is talking about 3-4 years. The recovery will take much longer – at least seven years, and possibly more,”
– summarized Ivan Stupak.
The military expert emphasized that the current state of the Russian army and economy casts doubt on any plans of the Kremlin for large-scale offensive operations in the near future.
“Wishful thinking”
At the same time, the Russians have enough potential and weapons to continue the war in its current form. This was stated in particular by military expert and former British military intelligence officer Frank Ledwidge in an interview with NV at the end of 2024. He assured that the Russian army has enough resources to continue the war, including human resources.
“I do not believe that the Russians lack human resources. They pay their military well and provide compensation for injuries. Although some analysts predict that next year [2025 – ed.] they may have problems with recruiting, there are no such difficulties at the moment,”
– Frank Ledwidge noted.
According to him, the Russians also do not have a significant shortage of material resources needed for the war.
“Artillery and drones are key elements of their military campaign, and they have no problem with that. The latest results, including the capture of Vuhledar, show that Russia continues to make tactical gains.”
Frank Ledwidge
The officer also commented on the idea that Russian forces are as exhausted by the war as Ukrainian forces.
“No, I don’t believe that. This is rather wishful thinking. Russia does not lack resources, and the last briefing of Western officials confirmed this – they did not even mention the exhaustion of the Russians,”
– Mr. Ledwidge summarized.
So, summarizing the experts, we can say that despite the losses and difficulties, Russia retains the ability to continue fighting, which indicates the need to strengthen support for the Ukrainian army for long-term defense and strategic offensive.
