“Decisive days”: will a war break out between India and Pakistan?
29 April 10:32
The war between India and Pakistan may begin in the coming days. This was stated by Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Bloomberg.
According to the official, there is an “immediate threat” of military conflict, but it can still be avoided.
“If something has to happen, it will happen within two or three days,”
– Asif warned in his comment.
The Pakistani defense minister noted that the next few days will be crucial for the fate of both countries. Currently, China, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent a military confrontation between the nuclear powers.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet provided official comments on the Pakistani official’s statements.
Escalation of the crisis in recent days
The diplomatic crisis between the two countries escalated sharply after last week’s militant attack in the northern region of Indian Kashmir, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists.
On Sunday, April 27, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to find and punish those responsible for the attack in a public speech. Official New Delhi classified the attack as a terrorist act and accused Pakistan of organizing it.
In response to these events, the Indian authorities have already taken a number of measures, including
- downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan;
- suspended an important water sharing agreement that is critical to Pakistani agriculture.
The suspension of the water sharing agreement was put into practice when on April 24, India blocked the flow of the Indus River towards Pakistan by closing all four locks that control the flow of water through dams and canals. This was the first such blockade since the Indus Water Agreement was signed in 1960, when the parties agreed to share the water resource despite political conflicts. Earlier, Pakistan stated that it would consider any attempt by India to stop or divert the flow of Indus water as an act of war.
Official Islamabad categorically denies any involvement in the bloody attacks. In response to India’s accusations and sanctions, Pakistan has taken mirror measures:
- expelled Indian diplomats from its territory;
- closed its airspace to all Indian airlines;
- suspended limited trade between the two countries.
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History of the conflict and preconditions of the current crisis
Tensions between India and Pakistan have historical roots dating back to 1947, when both countries gained independence from the British Empire. Since then, the two countries have fought several full-scale wars, three of which (in 1947-1948, 1965, and 1971) were directly related to the territorial dispute over control of Kashmir, a mountainous region in the north of the Indian subcontinent.
The last serious hostilities between the countries took place in 1999 during the so-called “Kargil War”. Back then, the Pakistani military and militants crossed the Line of Control (de facto border) and seized strategic heights in the Indian district of Kargil in Kashmir province. The conflict lasted for more than two months and ended only after international pressure on Pakistan, which withdrew its forces from the occupied positions.
The closest the two countries came to a full-scale war was in 2019, after a terrorist attack in February, when a suicide bomber from the Jaish-e-Mohammed group (the “Warriors of Mohammed”) blew up a bus carrying Indian soldiers, killing more than 40 Indian security personnel.
In response to this terrorist attack, India carried out its first air strike on the territory of Pakistan since 1971, claiming to have attacked a militant training camp in northern Pakistan. According to the Indian side, the bombing killed about 300 extremists.
Pakistani authorities denied that any camps had been hit. The day after the air strike, the Pakistani air force shot down an Indian military aircraft during an air battle. This incident was the first air clash between Indian and Pakistani military aircraft in almost half a century.
Both countries possess nuclear weapons, which significantly increases the potential risks of any military conflict between them. International observers have repeatedly called the Kashmir conflict one of the most dangerous “hot spots” in the world precisely because of the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the event of a full-scale war.
The current escalation comes amid the strengthening of the domestic political position of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is known for his tough stance on Pakistan and popularity among Indian nationalists. At the same time, Pakistan is going through a period of political instability after a series of government crises in recent years.
International efforts
The international community, including the United States, China, and the European Union, has already expressed deep concern over the current situation and called on both sides to exercise restraint and resume diplomatic dialogue.
Analysts note that the next few days will be crucial for the development of the situation in the region, and the mediation efforts of China and the Gulf states could play a crucial role in preventing military escalation.
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