Elections during the war: will they take place in May 2025?

15 January 16:00

Today, on January 15, the Verkhovna Rada extended the martial law in Ukraine, and now the question arises whether it is possible to hold elections in May this year, as previously reported by the media. Komersant ukrainskyi turned to Andriy Magera, former deputy head of the CEC and constitutional law expert at the CPLR, to find out whether it is realistic to hold elections in Ukraine in the near future and what difficulties this process may face.

Elections in Ukraine were supposed to take place in March 2024, but since martial law was introduced throughout the country, the voting was postponed indefinitely.

There were many discussions about the likelihood of their holding. At the time, the authorities emphasized that it was impossible to hold elections, including because hundreds of thousands of citizens were at the front and could not vote.

However, in September 2024, it became known that the Central Election Commission had resumed the work of the State Voter Register in terms of recording permanent polling stations. The CEC then explained that this is a regular planned work that is carried out on a regular basis, and this does not mean that elections will be held in the near future.

As reported by The Economist, elections in Ukraine could be held as early as 2025. The earliest date is May 25.

Magera believes that holding elections in May 2025 is unlikely.

“After the parliament extended the martial law in Ukraine, it is clear that the probability of holding elections in May is approaching, from today’s point of view, about zero. This is because the election process, for example, for the presidential election, takes 90 days before the election day. Parliamentary elections take 54 to 60 days. If we rewind back to May, we will get a picture of whether this is real or unrealistic,” the expert said.

He also emphasized the importance of security factors that could affect the elections.

“Therefore, I think that the probability of holding such elections in May is close to zero. And I’m not even taking into account security factors. Because no one agreed with Putin that he would not launch missiles when voting or candidate registration takes place. So we are well aware that there are a lot of factors involved. They merge into each other, string together. This is my position regarding May,” Magera added.

The expert also pointed out that the probability of holding elections in the fall is also very low. According to Magera, it takes at least six months to organize elections to ensure proper preparation of the electoral infrastructure.

“It’s more likely no than yes. Because of all these factors, security factors, and the effect of martial law… In addition, we have strong material developed by the Center for Political and Legal Reforms and the Civil Network OPORA, and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. These are three organizations that believe that at least 6 months are needed to prepare the electoral process in Ukraine. This applies to the project, infrastructure, and so on. This is an ideal option, as we see it. We understand that no one in the country is likely to provide such a great luxury for 6 months. Because there will be a huge demand from society for elections. Immediately, at that. But we have this vision, and it has been made public,” he summarized.

Thus, the issue of holding elections in Ukraine under martial law remains complicated, and so far, we cannot count on the next elections in May 2025.


Остафійчук Ярослав
Editor