Missed opportunity: The United States did not allow Ukraine to destroy a third of Russia’s Su-34 fleet at once – Forbes
6 August 14:25
The Ukrainian military had a unique opportunity to launch a devastating strike on Russian aviation, but was forced to abandon this plan because the White House refused to allow Kyiv to use ATACMS to strike Russian airfields. This was reported by Forbes, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
According to the publication, for several months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies to allow them to use the most powerful weapons provided by the United States, including ATACMS ballistic missiles, to strike Russian military aircraft based at open airfields in Russia near Ukrainian cities.
However, the administration of US President Joe Biden rejected this request, citing the risk of escalation. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, told reporters last month: “Our policy has not changed.” Ukraine is still allowed to use ATACMS only against targets in Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine.
This refusal has had serious consequences. According to Ukrainian intelligence, earlier this summer, dozens of Su-34 fighter-bombers were stationed at the Voronezh-Malshevo airbase, just 160 km from the Ukrainian border. This represented almost a third of the entire fleet of these aircraft, which are key to Russia’s bombing campaign against Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military considered striking the base with ATACMS, which are virtually impossible to intercept. Such a strike could have caused serious damage to the Russian air force and significantly weakened its ability to attack Ukrainian cities and positions.
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However, as they watched the diplomatic discussions on ATACMS, the Russians made a rare proactive decision to withdraw Su-34s from Voronezh-Malshevo and other border airfields.
“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces moved the lion’s share of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,”
– notes the analytical group Frontelligence Insight.
Today, many Su-34s are based hundreds of kilometres from the border. They are still not invulnerable to Ukraine’s long-range drones, but are safe from most Ukrainian drones and ATACMS missiles, the most powerful of which have a range of only 300 km.
Despite this, Ukrainian forces continue to attack Russian airfields using their own drones. For example, on Saturday, Ukrainian drones attacked the Morozovsk airbase in southern Russia, 320 km from the front line. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the raid destroyed one Su-34, damaged two more and burned an ammunition depot.
However, such attacks are becoming increasingly difficult due to the relocation of Russian aircraft. To stop the bombing campaign, Ukraine needs to destroy dozens of Su-34s, not just one or two. The smarter deployment of Russian aircraft makes this goal more difficult to achieve.