There will be no breakthrough in the combat zone in the near future. Ukraine will continue to lose territory by the end of the year. This forecast was made by Oleksandr Kovalenko, a columnist for the Information Resistance group .
Counter-offensives and similar actions should not be expected at this time, Kovalenko said in an interview with the Youtube platform “News Factory”. The military and political observer also assures that the F-16s will not be immediately effective. For this to happen, there must be appropriate conditions and factors that would make the use of F-16s more efficient and, most importantly, safe. Therefore, in the most difficult parts of the frontline, Ukraine may continue to lose territory, Kovalenko predicts.
“The most difficult situation is in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk sectors, the second most difficult is in the Kramatorsk sector and Chasiv Yar. The situation will remain difficult until the end of this year, so we shouldn’t expect any changes in these particular locations. We will continue to lose territory. We need to be mentally and psychologically prepared for this,” Oleksandr Kovalenko
The military and political observer adds that Ukraine has been on the defensive since 2023. And during a defensive strategy, it is impossible to fight and liberate territory, you can only lose it.
Who is to blame for the difficult situation at the front?
Six months without US assistance has put Ukraine in an extremely difficult situation, says Oleksandr Kovalenko. A critical shortage of ammunition, ammunition, and Western equipment forced us not only to go on the defensive, but also to retreat.
“Any defence is broken through. This is an a priori dogma of military affairs. You can slow down and restrain the enemy’s offensive as much as possible, but you will never stop it with defence.” – Oleksandr Kovalenko
On the other hand, defence can be used to exhaust the enemy. And this is exactly what, according to the military and political observer, we have been using to the maximum extent possible lately.
“Every month, everyone rejoices at the high rates of destruction of Russian equipment and personnel, but for some reason we criticise them for leaving some positions, for withdrawing from certain territories. All this is connected, one cannot exist without the other. And our strategy will remain the same until the end of the year,” Oleksandr Kovalenko
When will Ukraine seize the initiative?
The situation will change for the better when the enemy is as exhausted as possible. So that he cannot keep the occupied territories under control. Oleksandr Kovalenko concludes that if we observe the enemy’s potential and how it is changing, this is the limit of 2024-2025.
I would like to remind you that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained in an interview with Bllomberg why there is currently no counter-offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He says we have the desire, but not the tools. The President noted that we have brigades without weapons. We have a reserve. In particular, 14 brigades are waiting for the appropriate weapons, which are slowly coming.
At the same time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to call the situation at the front a stalemate. He says, “It’s just a problematic situation.”
Author – Anastasia Fedor