Policy

Military presence without fighting: how French peacekeepers will change the situation in Ukraine

Official Kyiv is actively discussing with France and the United Kingdom the possibility of introducing a peacekeeping mission, which could be implemented after a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine. This was stated by Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi on March 7, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.

He noted that this issue was discussed at a high level between the presidents of the two countries, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron, as well as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The main goal of the initiative is to ensure the security of Ukraine’s strategically important facilities and create conditions for the restoration of peaceful life.

“To make a decision on a military contingent to support peace in Ukraine, a consensus of Ukraine’s partner countries is needed. The United States should be among them. Also, Ukraine will insist not only on a mission on land, but also in the air and on water,” said Tychy.

What is known about France’s peacekeeping initiatives for Ukraine

It is worth noting that French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that his country does not plan to send troops to participate in hostilities, but is considering the possibility of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. It is expected that the military will be deployed in ports, large cities and critical infrastructure facilities far from the front line. The contingent will monitor the situation using intelligence data, satellites and unmanned technologies.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed support for this initiative, noting that such a mission could be an important step on Ukraine’s path to NATO. He emphasized that the presence of foreign peacekeepers should not replace Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance, but should only complement security measures in the country. According to him, the peacekeeping operation should be carefully thought out and partner countries should be involved in its implementation to ensure the mission’s effectiveness and long-term operation.

The plan under consideration provides for the deployment of about 30,000 military personnel who will perform security and stabilization functions in the region. At the same time, the main forces will be focused on protecting civilians rather than conducting combat operations. In addition to the military contingent, it is planned to use modern technologies to monitor the situation on the ground.

How the US reacts to the negotiations on a peacekeeping mission

The United States has no plans to participate in a peacekeeping mission, but President Donald Trump has expressed support for the deployment of European forces in Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached. He noted that the United States is too far away and does not plan to send its military, but is ready to support the initiative politically and diplomatically.

French peacekeepers in Ukraine: the position of the aggressor country

Moscow has not yet made any official statements regarding the peacekeeping mission, but previously the Russian authorities have been negative about the presence of any foreign military on the territory of Ukraine. In this regard, as military observers and political analysts emphasize, it remains unclear how such a mission could be agreed with Russia in the framework of potential peace talks.

What problems may Kyiv and Paris face in the framework of a peacekeeping mission?

The deployment of peacekeepers could be an important step in rebuilding Ukraine and ensuring security in the liberated territories. However, there are still a number of unresolved issues, including the composition of the contingent, its legal status, mandate, and interaction with the Ukrainian armed forces. In addition, all details need to be agreed upon with international partners to avoid complications and possible diplomatic conflicts.

Currently, negotiations between Ukraine, France, and the United Kingdom are ongoing. The leaders of the countries are discussing possible mechanisms for deploying a peacekeeping mission, its composition, and deployment conditions. If successfully implemented, this project could be a significant step in ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security and facilitating its integration into the Euro-Atlantic space.

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How many peacekeepers are needed to stabilize Ukraine?

Up to 200,000 peacekeepers are needed to stabilize the demarcation line in Ukraine. This figure was voiced by Maria Zolkina, a political expert at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

“There is no such number of armed forces in Europe that would allow sending the 200 thousand that Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned to Ukraine. Given the experience of international conflict resolution, in order for a demarcation line as long as in Ukraine to be stable, the initial figure of 200 thousand, which frightened European partners, is close to reality,” Zolkina said.

The expert pointed out that despite the fact that after 2014 Ukraine did not officially ask for or promote the idea of peacekeepers in Donbas, experts still developed such a scenario. At that time, it was said that 30,000 to 40,000 peacekeepers were needed for the then existing demarcation line, which was several times smaller than the one we see now.

According to Zolkina, the European countries with the largest armies could hypothetically send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. These are Germany, France and Poland. This is especially true of official Warsaw, which has rapidly “built up” its army over the past few years and increased the number of troops from 100,000 to more than two hundred. Moreover, Poland plans not to stop there in the foreseeable future.

“It is Poland that will face a more than serious choice: how to send a significant part of its army on an international mission to Ukraine, if NATO is not likely to stand up for Polish territory in the event of aggression (against official Warsaw – ed.),” Zolkina emphasized.

Thus, she emphasized that even countries that have the necessary resources will not be ready to make a political decision and separate 30 or 50 thousand troops to send to Ukraine.