Will the war end today? Conspiracy, predictions and reality
30 December 10:27
ANALYSIS
The hot phase of the war should end on December 30. This loud statement was made by journalist Dmitry Gordon. After that, a real flurry of discussions broke out on social media: users actively spread rumors about possible “secret talks” between Russia and the United States that allegedly took place in Washington. The excitement was fueled by reports about the route of an airplane from the special flight unit “Russia” that had been in the US capital for several days. Whether backroom deals are really taking place these days that will change the course of the war or who benefits from such conspiracy theories, the Komersant ukrainskyi researched.
Gordon’s statement
on December 29, Dmitry Gordon announced that the end of the war was approaching.
“Tomorrow in Washington there will be a historic meeting that will end the war,”
– Gordon said.
In particular, the journalist points out that the decrease in the number of air alerts and drone strikes in recent days is, in his opinion, a consequence of the agreements reached in the United States.
Russian Special Forces plane spent two days in the US: what is known
The route of the Il-96-300 aircraft of the special flight detachment “Russia” used by senior Russian officials has caused a new wave of speculation about possible secret talks between Moscow and Washington. There are no official reports of the Russian delegation’s visit to the United States, but FlightRadar data shows that the plane flew between Moscow, New York and Washington from December 26 to 28.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief
The route of the special flight
- december 25: flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
- december 26: flight from St. Petersburg to New York and from there to Washington.
- december 28: return via New York to Moscow.
This plane is used for official flights by Russia’s top leadership, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin, and Dmitry Medvedev.
Who visited the United States and for what purpose? There is currently no official information about the visit. Neither the Russian nor the American sides have reported any high-level contacts these days.
Reality and counterarguments
On the same day, December 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow was not satisfied with the proposals of Donald Trump’s team to resolve the situation in Ukraine. According to him, the ideas of postponing Ukraine’s accession to NATO for 20 years or deploying a peacekeeping contingent of European forces are unacceptable to the Kremlin. At the same time, Lavrov emphasized that the current contacts between the Joe Biden administration and Moscow are not related to negotiations on Ukraine.
Additional intrigue is added by statements about significant decisions being prepared in the United States to support Ukraine, as well as potential changes in Russian-American relations on the eve of the inauguration of the new US president. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also announced an important US decision on support for Ukraine, which is expected on December 30. However, this is likely to be a new military aid package, not an end to the war.
Rumors and emotions in society
At the same time, some military chat rooms have allegedly posted information about when the war will end.
Moods differ among the military and politicians. The telegram channel “OFFICER” notes:
“Personally, I don’t mind the war ending right now, but the war flywheel has gained so much momentum that it is impossible to stop it suddenly.”
“OFFICER”
MP Liza Bogutska also expressed her views, drawing parallels with the COVID-19 pandemic. She noted that the war could end unexpectedly due to external factors, such as a natural disaster or internal collapse in Russia.
“Sometimes I think the war will end unexpectedly. Just like Covid. Remember the masked regime? […] It all ended in one day. In an hour. Even more – instantly. As soon as the first explosions in Ukraine occurred. It will be the same with the war. Something will happen. It is bound to happen. A natural disaster, for example. Imagine if an earthquake swallows the Kremlin.”
Lisa Bogutska
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Valeriy Chaly does not believe in a sudden halt to the war. He has no information about the meeting or its conclusion.
A more realistic forecast
Against the backdrop of talk of an end, a more pragmatic forecast is emerging: a prisoner exchange is possible for the New Year holidays. This information is confirmed by several insider sources.
In general, despite hopes and predictions, reality leaves little reason to believe that the war will end soon. Ukraine continues to fight for its freedom, and the West provides the necessary support. Change is possible, but it takes time and effort, not just loud statements and rumors.
