War

The war in Ukraine may end by mid-2026, – IMF. Is this scenario realistic?

ANALYSIS FROM

The war in Ukraine may last until mid-2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released an updated forecast of developments in Ukraine in the sixth review under the Extended Fund Facility, which includes a baseline and a negative scenario for the end of the war. What should Ukraine expect and how military experts assess the IMF’s analysis – more in the article Komersant ukrainskyi.

One of the IMF’s scenarios, the baseline, predicts the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine at the end of 2025. According to the report, real GDP growth in 2024 will reach 4% year-on-year, 1 percentage point more than in the previous forecast. The economic impact of the winter electricity shortages may be weaker than previously expected. This is due to:

• businesses investing in their own generating capacities;
• increased potential for electricity imports from Europe;
• active repair works and installation of new energy facilities.

Inflation by the end of the year was revised upward to 10% due to rising food prices, higher wages, and higher energy costs. The forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 remains at 2.5-3.5%, as the positive impact of the energy infrastructure rebuilding will be offset by the impact of the tight labor market. Average inflation in 2025 is estimated at 10.3%.

Negative scenario: the war will last until mid-2026

The IMF’s alternative scenario assumes a longer conflict with the war ending in mid-2026. This would cause a deeper shock to the economy, increasing budgetary needs, and worsening the balance of payments.

Key indicators of the negative scenario:

• The total external financing deficit will amount to USD 177.2 billion (compared to USD 148 billion in the baseline scenario).
• Real GDP decline with a slow recovery.
• Higher and more persistent inflation.
• Worsening of the current account balance excluding grants.
• The level of international reserves will remain below 100% according to the ARA criterion until 2027.
• The budget deficit without grants will exceed 20% by 2026.

The IMF’s forecasts emphasize the dependence on macroeconomic stability and international support, which remains critical for Ukraine’s economy during the war and after its end.

Military expert Roman Svitan in an exclusive commentary [Kommersant] shared his forecasts for the end of the war, emphasizing key military and technical aspects. According to him, the freezing of hostilities until Ukraine returns to the internationally recognized borders of 1991 is unrealistic.

“It is impossible to stop the troops liberating their territory. Every soldier swears an oath to the people of Ukraine, not to the government or parliament. The main obligations of the army are to ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state,” noted Roman Svitan.

Forecast for 2026: liberation of Crimea as a key milestone

According to Svitan, the complete liberation of Crimea may become real in 2026. He calls this task “the easiest from a military point of view”. The solution to this issue can be achieved both by ground operations and by targeted strikes with ATACMS missiles, the number of which, according to his estimates, should be 1,500-2,000 units.

“The liberation of Crimea will deprive Russia of the need to hold Donbas and the land corridor that currently provides logistics for the Crimean military group. After that, Russia may call for a truce to withdraw from the occupied territories,” suggests Roman Svitan.

Possible consequences: repetition of the Syrian scenario

Svitan draws parallels with the events in Syria, where Russia was forced to withdraw its forces due to financial, economic and military pressure. In his opinion, a similar scenario could unfold in Ukraine after the liberation of Crimea.

“Economic and military levers of pressure on Russia may force it to leave Donbas and the land corridor in 2026. It will be a kind of escape similar to the Syrian one,” Roman Svitan concludes.

Stopping the fighting due to lack of funding or ammunition is unlikely at this point.

“Everything has gone too far, and the only way to resolve this issue is to fully liberate the territories,” summarized Mr. Svitan.

Thus, the forecasts of the IMF and military experts somewhat coincide, indicating that the war in Ukraine may last until mid-2026, depending on economic and military dynamics. The baseline scenario envisions a gradual economic recovery, while the negative scenario depicts a more difficult path with lingering consequences. The key factors remain international support, economic resilience, and Ukraine’s readiness to defend its territories.

Author – Anastasia Fedor