War and crime. Poland warns of a possible surge in organized crime
4 February 07:26
The cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, according to Polish President Andrzej Duda, could lead to a surge in international organized crime. He is very much afraid that former Ukrainian soldiers will be involved in crime, as many will return with mental problems. How realistic are the fears of the Polish president,
In an interview with the Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that he fears a return to the 90s, when gang violence and gun violence in Europe and America were on the rise among Afghan war veterans. And he is worried that thousands of Ukrainians with mental health problems who return from the war will go abroad, including to Poland, where they will engage in criminal activity.
According to the President of Poland, many will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder and, when they return to their hometowns and villages, they will “find destroyed houses, destroyed plants, destroyed factories, no jobs and no prospects.”
In general, it all boils down to the fact that former military personnel will definitely create armed criminal groups and go to well-fed and rich Europe to rob and kill. If they are not kept in Ukraine at any cost, even by helping to restore the economy and “maintain order and security inside the country.”
Not all former military personnel will commit crimes
According to criminal psychologist and forensic expert Yuriy Irkhin, President Duda made a very strange statement. In the context of criminal activity – banditry, robbery, premeditated murder, etc. – former combatants are the least likely to commit such crimes.
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“Well, judge for yourself. Those who were at war, saw what was happening there, have an exaggerated sense of justice and humanism. They have seen death and suffering, and they don’t want it anymore. In the 90s, “Afghans” did not pose any danger at all. The vast majority of organized criminal groups consisted of peaceful athletes. In 2013-2014, we were also afraid that our volunteers would return from the ATO and start a mess. But this did not happen,” he said in a commentary
Yuriy Irkhin said in a commentary to [Komersant]. [Kommersant]
In his opinion, it is more likely that a bum or a drug addict will turn to crime, but not those returning from the front. Only a few of them join the criminal environment. But if a criminal went to war, he will return and will be engaged in the same criminal activity again. But there is a chance that only 1-2% will return with serious mental problems and will disrupt order on this basis.
“I am sure that Duda was referring to the fact that our country’s economy is destabilized and that it is difficult for former military personnel to survive without normal support and assistance from the state. Even on January 1, the payment of UBD insurance was returned. The guy fought, came back, was promised some kind of social package, but they don’t give it to him. And they see what income is reported to MSEC, TCC and other bodies, and they will be outraged. But this is unlikely to lead to criminal activity, it is more likely to lead to protests, riots, because these people will seek social justice. But there may be some crimes on their part. You remember when a grenade was thrown during a village council meeting. This is possible. And domestic crime will immediately soar. By the way, we are going to see a lot of alcohol and drug addiction among former military, because they need to run away from their memories,” Irkhin believes.
The crime curve is going down, but it can also grow
The Ministry of Internal Affairs is cautious about forecasts. On the one hand, unofficially, they said
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The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine emphasized that street crime has almost dropped to zero due to curfews and a large number of patrols with TACs (so-called alert groups) on the streets, but fraud is rampant. The number of serious and especially serious crimes has also increased, but this is due to changes in legislation. Previously, simple thefts were classified as minor crimes, but now they are classified as committed in wartime, and are already serious. Domestic crime has grown, and the number of crimes related to illegal arms trafficking and vehicle theft has increased. The police also document war crimes during the war, which spoils the statistics.
“Since the beginning of the war, we have documented more than 111,000 of them, and they are all part of the overall crime structure. Therefore, if we take the total figure, it has grown. But the crime situation has not changed and is under control,” said Ivan Vygovsky, head of the National Police of Ukraine, in an interview with the media, but he also noted that after the war, the crime rate in Ukraine is expected to rise.
One thing is clear: to prevent former soldiers from turning to crime, it is necessary to create rehabilitation centers for combatants with PTSD so that neighbors do not talk about how they are afraid of Ukrainian soldiers who may come to Europe and engage in crime.
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Author: Alla Dunina