“Political expert: EU’s refusal from Russian gas will push Ukraine to rethink the role of GTS
5 May 15:34
The European Union plans to propose measures to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. Thus, the bloc is seeking to cut ties with the country that was once its largest energy supplier, Bloomberg reported.
The flow of Russian gas to Europe has plummeted since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but Russia remains a significant supplier to the EU through a pipeline through Turkey and liquefied natural gas supplies. However, the publication argues that the EU is moving forward with its long-planned intention to gradually phase out Russian fossil fuels.
The EU plans to propose in June a ban on all gas purchases under new agreements with Russia and existing spot contracts, which account for about a third of imports. The ban is to take effect by the end of the year, sources say.
The European Commission will also approve measures next month to stop imports of Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas under long-term contracts, but they will require a longer transition period until the end of 2027, the sources said.
Efforts to end dependence on Russian gas will open the way for American suppliers to send more liquefied natural gas to Europe, as Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded. Costs and security remain key concerns in the wake of the energy crisis, but the EU expects its plan to have a limited impact on prices as a new wave of LNG supplies hits the global market in the coming years, Bloomberg sources said.
Since 2022, Ukraine has heard many times about something like this from its European partners, but the reality is that during the third year of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the EU has spent more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid to Ukraine.
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“It is possible to refuse. But not necessarily in 2027”
Therefore, "Komersant Ukrainian" asked political scientist Ruslan Bortnik how realistic these plans (or rumors) are in the current political realities, when 3 years of a terrible war have not yet forced Europe to refuse the aggressor’s fuel. According to him, the main factor that could disrupt such plans is the uncertain market situation.
“It is possible to do this, but the point is that we are talking about long-term planning. We cannot predict the situation on the global energy markets at some future point. Therefore, this will not necessarily happen in 2027,”
– the expert commented exclusively to .
Much also depends on the outcome of the current negotiation process with Russia, he said. These results can either work to further isolate Russia or facilitate the aggressor’s return to the European market.
For Ukraine, the final refusal of Europe from Russian gas also has its negatives, the political scientist noted.
“This will mean a further decrease in the feasibility of any energy transit through Ukraine. Today, even if our gas contract is not being fulfilled, oil is still flowing through our territory. That is, we are still making money on it. If our gas transportation system ceases to be transit and attractive, it will probably work as a gas storage facility in the reverse accumulation mode, i.e. as another gas storage facility for the European Union,”
– emphasizes Bortnik.
Global gas prices depend not only on the market itself, but also on political factors, the political scientist adds. For example, Iran and Venezuela could return to the market, and then prices would go down. If global political confrontations escalate, prices will rise, Ruslan Bortnik summarizes.
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Europe and Russian gas
As of the beginning of 2022, the EU was 40% dependent on Russian gas. In 2021, 65% of the gas purchased by Germany was Russian. In the third quarter of 2023, only 12% of the gas imported by the EU remained Russian.
At the same time, some EU countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, remain dependent on Russian gas. These countries’ contracts with Gazprom provide for gas supplies through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Austria has signed a contract for gas supplies until 2040, but it has already declared that it has become independent of Russian fuel.
After both Nord Stream and the Ukrainian gas transportation system are shut down, Russia will be able to supply gas to Europe only through the Turkish Stream.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the European Union has bought 208 billion euros worth of energy from Russia.
