“Pandora’s Box Open: Will the Allies Recognize Occupied Crimea and Four Regions of Ukraine as Russian?
28 April 16:25
OPINION
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ‘s speech in Brazil, where he hinted at the possibility of discussing the “recognition” of the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, sparked a lively discussion among political analysts.
Is it really possible for Western countries to recognize not only Crimea, but also the four regions partially occupied by the enemy as Russian? Political analysts Ruslan Bortnik and Oleg Lisnyi in exclusive comments
Lavrov voiced the Kremlin’s position on ending the war in Ukraine: what he said
In an interview with the Brazilian newspaper O Globo, the Russian Foreign Minister listed the following conditions for peace talks:
- Ukraine does not become a NATO member, the country’s status is neutral and non-aligned;
- international recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the so-called DPR and LPR, as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as belonging to Russia;
- “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine;
- lifting of sanctions and return of frozen Russian assets;
- “overcoming the consequences of the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv, which was formed as a result of the February 2014 coup.” Here, Lavrov was referring to the abolition of laws restricting the use of the Russian language, culture, and the functioning of the UOC-MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate – ed;)
- Ukraine should lift the ban on negotiations with Russia;
- Zaporizhzhya NPP should be controlled only by Russia.
“The agenda includes demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, lifting of sanctions, lawsuits and arrest warrants, return of Russian assets frozen in the West,” the Russian Foreign Minister said.
Ruslan Bortnik: “The course of the war changes politics instantly”
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik emphasized that at present, a scenario where the allies legally recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea and four Ukrainian regions is “extremely unlikely.” But he also warned that in the world of politics, the situation can change at lightning speed depending on the course of the war.
“We could not have imagined six months ago that the United States would seriously discuss the issue of recognizing Crimea as Russian,” Bortnik said.
He explained that the course of the war, changing balances, changing interests, changing resources have a very serious and very rapid impact on politics.
“In historical time, this happens instantly,” the political scientist emphasized.
The expert also emphasized that Lavrov’s statement is an unofficial position of the Kremlin and not even the official line of the Russian Foreign Ministry. He sees this speech as an element of internal competition in Russian diplomacy.
“There is a certain competition within the Russian government for diplomatic tracks: between the conventionally diplomatic line and the line that is currently supported by Dmitriev (head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and special representative of the Russian president for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries Kirill Dmitriev – ed. Lavrov actually repeated what has been announced since the beginning of the war,” Bortnik said.
In his opinion, such “harsh statements” may be caused by the struggle for influence among the political leadership of the Russian Federation.
Oleh Lisnyi: “It will be opening Pandora’s box”
Political analyst Oleh Lisnyi was also skeptical about the prospects for official recognition of the seized territories, especially in light of international law. He directly warned of the catastrophic consequences of such a step for global stability.
“If we call the entire civilized world our allies, then according to the logic of international law, they have no right to recognize this. It will be opening a Pandora’s box that will not be closed for decades,” noted Lisnyi.
The expert emphasized that the official recognition of the seized territories would set a dangerous precedent that could provoke new wars around the world.
“This is just the beginning of many wars. Europe realizes this. The United States may not. Other wording may be applied that will de jure leave the territories for Ukraine, but de facto recognize them as controlled by Russia,” the expert believes.
According to him, the precedent for such regions as Taiwan or even some European disputed territories is particularly dangerous.
“First four regions, then another war, then something else – and Ukraine will simply cease to exist,” warned Lisnyi.
In his opinion, only a veiled formulation, without direct legal recognition, is possible, which will allow the allies to avoid officially violating international law.
Thus, at the moment, the recognition of the territories occupied by Russia by the allies seems almost impossible. Nevertheless, experts agree that the dynamics of the war could dramatically change the political landscape. Statements such as the one made by Lavrov should not be perceived as an official change of course, but rather as a signal of internal contradictions in the Kremlin and attempts to influence the international agenda.
