Publications

trump’s “big day” in April: what the US president is up to and what Ukrainians should prepare for

US President Donald Trump has announced an important and “very big event” to take place in early April 2025. It is reported by Clash Report.

“April 2 will be a great day,” he said, without specifying what kind of event might take place.

Experts suggest that this may be due to the introduction of new economic restrictions for Canada. Earlier it was announced that on April 2, the US will introduce new duties on car imports.

It is also worth noting that Trump has decided to cancel his intention to impose a 50% duty on steel and aluminum from Canada, leaving 25% as previously planned.

We cannot rule out the possibility that Trump could have been hinting at a war in Ukraine.

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko shared his forecasts for the next steps in the peace process and the role of US President Donald Trump in these negotiations exclusively for Komersant ukrainskyi.

Trump’s proposal: ceasefire talks

Fesenko noted that the date announced by Trump is “still conditional,” but it probably refers to the start of ceasefire negotiations. According to him, if the date is met, intense diplomatic activity may take place in the coming weeks.

“This is what Trump wants. If these dates are realized, I think direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia with the participation of the United States may begin,” the political analyst explained.

Fesenko also commented on the likelihood of a ceasefire violation, noting that both sides may not observe silence. He emphasized that it is more important to avoid active hostilities and the hot phase of the war than to maintain complete silence.

“War is war. It is another thing to avoid active hostilities. This is what the ceasefire is all about,” he said.

The political analyst also believes that even if some violations occur, it will not be critical, as it can be part of a normal process.

Sanctions mechanism to encourage compliance with the agreement

In terms of monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire, the United States intends to apply a sanctions waiver mechanism. Fesenko explained that this will provide additional pressure on Russia to fulfill the terms of the agreement.

“The Americans want to apply the sanctions lifting stage to ensure that Russia complies with the ceasefire,” he said.

This mechanism provides for the gradual lifting of sanctions, starting with the lifting of some restrictions, and if the situation is stable in 30 days, sanctions can be lifted to a large extent.

Trump’s goal: a diplomatic victory by the 100th day of his presidency

Fesenko also emphasized that it is important for Trump to achieve a result in the negotiation process by the 100th day of his presidency, which is in early May.

“Trump wants to get a significant diplomatic victory by the 100th day of his presidency,” the political analyst noted.

The political scientist emphasized that, unlike previous statements, the current process is a real and active negotiation, not just public statements.

“The fundamental difference now is that there are active negotiations with both sides. These are not just statements,” Fesenko said.

According to him, those who only follow statements may not understand the true course of events. Therefore, it is now important to take into account that the negotiations are really underway and can lead to concrete results in the peace process.

Fesenko notes that, despite all the risks, the peace process is likely to continue, and new opportunities to achieve a ceasefire may emerge in the coming weeks. However, success depends on many factors, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

Trump’s unpredictability and possible conflicts

In a conversation with KU, military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak shared his thoughts on US foreign policy under Donald Trump. Stupak touched upon Trump’s unpredictability, his attitude to the war in Ukraine, and possible scenarios in the world.

Stupak noted that Donald Trump behaves unpredictably, which makes it difficult to predict his next steps in the international arena.

“We assume what might happen. I’m already leaning towards the fact that I need to buy a map. You know, where you have to erase the countries you’ve been to with a coin. And here, you have to erase the countries with which Donald Trump has quarreled,” the expert said.

Stupak suggested that in the near future there may be conflicts in different regions of the world, such as Greenland, Iran, North Korea, or the Middle East. He particularly singled out Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where, in his opinion, Trump has not yet proven himself:

“It could be Greenland, it could be Ukraine, it could be Russia. It may be Iran, it may be North Korea, it may be a region that Donald Trump has not yet touched with his attention,” Stupak suggested.

The political scientist emphasized that the war with Russia is a priority for Ukraine. However, he noted that for Trump, it is probably not the main problem, because the situation in Ukraine is remote for Americans:

“The war is number one for us, for Ukraine. But the farther you go to the West, the less the war is felt,” he said, adding that other countries’ problems may be more important to Trump.

Trump and his unpredictability

Stupak emphasized that Trump is known for his unpredictability, which makes it difficult to predict his actions. He cited examples of Trump changing his statements and attitudes on certain issues, including Ukraine and Russia.

This unpredictability can be both beneficial and detrimental to Ukraine. According to Stupak, it is impossible to predict exactly what mood Trump will wake up in tomorrow.

“Is this more of a political game by Trump? He imposes sanctions, duties, restrictions. You can’t understand why he is doing this. The only option is to wait until his term is over,” Stupak summarized.

Ivan Stupak also shared his thoughts on Trump himself, noting that he probably does not fully realize the consequences of his actions. He recalled the situation on the American stock market, where everything looks very bad, but Trump assures that “everything is fine.” This confirms the idea that Trump may not realize the full consequences of his decisions, which, in turn, adds to the unpredictability of his foreign policy.

Given all of the above, Ivan Stupak believes that the most logical option is to wait until Trump’s term is over. Only then will it be possible to assess the real consequences of his policy:

“It is important for us to wait until his term is over, because it is difficult to predict what he will do tomorrow,” he concluded.

Thus, according to Stupak, the biggest challenge for Ukraine is Donald Trump’s unpredictability, which raises many questions and uncertainties in international relations.