The cost of the market basket in Ukraine in 2025: realities and forecasts

16 January 15:58
Komersant ukrainskyi ANALYSIS

At the beginning of 2025, Ukrainians are traditionally concerned about an issue that directly affects their quality of life – the price of basic foodstuffs. The food basket, which includes basic necessities, is an indicator of the economic situation in the country, the level of inflation and the purchasing power of citizens. Komersant ukrainskyi has calculated the average cost of a standard food basket, which includes such popular products as social bread, chicken, milk, refined sunflower oil, eggs, buckwheat, flour, potatoes, sugar and salt. Price dynamics and trends for 2025 are described in the article below.

In order to analyze the situation clearly, our publication turned to the leading and largest supermarket chains in Ukraine, in particular, EKO MARKET and Fora, to get the current prices for the products of the Ukrainian food basket.

Fora provided up-to-date information on the prices of products included in the basic food basket of Ukrainians as of the beginning of 2025. Taking into account the conversion to grams, the cost of goods is as follows:

Thus, as of January 2025, the total cost of a standard food basket will be UAH 240. The press service of the Fora chain of stores notes that prices are influenced by a variety of factors, such as input prices from suppliers, participation of products in promotions, the competitive environment, and regulation by law.

“Most of the products in this basket are indicative goods, i.e. those that, according to the law, are regulated by the maximum markup allowed – no more than 10% of the input price. The more global factors affecting the price include the availability of raw materials for production, crop yields, rising production costs – warehouse and transportation logistics, packaging costs, utility costs, labor costs, etc,

– noted in Fora.

As for trends, the grocery basket of Ukrainians and the products in it are changing significantly amid economic instability, full-scale war and inflation, the Fora press service adds.

“Ukrainians are increasingly buying staples such as cereals, flour, oil and eggs, which are becoming the basis of their diet. As a chain, we are actively working to reduce the cost of the grocery basket by expanding the range of products with our own brands and providing guests with interesting promotions. This allows us to offer our customers quality products at lower prices, which is especially important in the context of declining purchasing power of the population.”

Press service of Fora chain stores

ECO MARKET, as one of the leading retailers in Ukraine, cares about the availability of basic products for consumers. In response to a request from the editorial office , the company provided up-to-date information on the cost of basic goods that form the food basket of an average consumer as of January 16, 2025. In addition to the usual basic products, the basket includes more variety, including delicacies such as chocolate and jamon.

“We try to maintain fair prices to provide every customer with quality products at an affordable price. Price dynamics depend on many factors, such as yields, production costs and logistics costs. At the same time, we are constantly working on creating promotions and special offers to ease the financial burden on our guests for our supermarket.”

Press service of ECO MARKET

The total cost of the food basket is about UAH 300. More different products have been added to it to meet the needs of Ukrainian consumers for access to quality food.

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Forecast for food basket prices in 2025

Economist Oleg Pendzin shared his estimates of the cost of the food basket for Ukrainians in 2025. In his opinion, an accurate forecast for the whole year is currently impossible due to unpredictable climatic and economic circumstances. According to Pendzin, the key factor behind the price increase in 2024 was a poor harvest.

“In 2024, we harvested 30% less potatoes and 10 million tons less grain. And cereals are a feedstock that affects prices for meat, milk and other products,”

– the expert explained.

Oleg Pendzin noted that in the first half of 2025, there will probably be no significant price increase, as imports of goods will partially stabilize the situation.

“Imports are already significantly supporting the market. For example, in November 2024, Ukraine started importing potatoes from Poland and Lithuania. This allows us to avoid shortages and restrain price increases,”

– the economist said.

However, the situation in the second half of the year remains uncertain. If the summer of 2025 is abnormally hot, the consequences for the harvest could be serious, and this will significantly complicate the situation, Pendzin warned.

So, while prices may remain stable in the coming months, further forecasts will depend on the agricultural situation, climatic conditions, and import dynamics.

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Anastasiia Fedor
Автор