ISW explains why Putin needs a “truce” on Victory Day
29 April 09:04
the Victory Day “truce” proposed by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not seen by him as a serious step toward lasting peace in Ukraine. This is stated in a recent report by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
The experts emphasized that the details of any future ceasefire or peace agreement should be publicly available, formally agreed upon in advance by all parties, and include reliable monitoring mechanisms. And Putin’s proposed Victory Day ceasefire does not provide for any additional monitoring mechanisms.
Therefore, the Russian side is likely to take advantage of the absence of such mechanisms to “once again fill the information space with unfounded statements about violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine.”
“Putin continues to refuse any ceasefire except for conditions that favor his military efforts… Russian officials seem uninterested in establishing effective monitoring mechanisms or a general public basis for such ceasefires, presumably because Russia benefits from using vague and unclear ceasefire conditions against Ukraine to its advantage,” the experts emphasized.
In their opinion, Putin is using the unilateral ceasefire to gain information and military advantage in Ukraine, while US President Donald Trump is trying to use the general ceasefire as a step towards a long-term and sustainable peace agreement in Ukraine.
According to them, Putin seems to be opportunistically announcing ceasefires during major religious and military holidays to force Ukraine to agree to a truce or risk looking intransigent to the West.
“Putin likely sees the Victory Day ceasefire as an opportunity for Russian troops to rest before the upcoming fighting on the front lines, and as a way to ensure that Ukraine does not launch any significant long-range strikes against Russia during the Victory Day celebrations. Therefore, Putin probably does not see the Victory Day truce as a serious step towards a lasting peace in Ukraine,” the experts concluded.
Experts believe that Putin’s continued efforts to conceal his previous rejections of U.S. and Ukrainian ceasefire proposals contradict Trump’s stated approach of establishing a ceasefire first and then negotiating a broader peace agreement, as well as the U.S. president’s goal of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine.
Putin’s May “truce”
On Monday, April 28, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared a temporary “truce” in the war with Ukraine for the second time.
This time, the ceasefire is to be in effect from May 8 to 10, so that Moscow can celebrate the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there was no reason to postpone the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia until May 8 just so that dictator Vladimir Putin could ensure silence at the Victory Day parade.
Putin’s Easter “truce”
On the eve of Easter, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he had ordered a “halt to all hostilities” from 18:00 on April 19 to 00:00 on April 21. Zelenskyy responded that Ukraine was ready to join the format of a complete ceasefire and would act in a mirror image of Russia’s actions, i.e. “silence in response to silence, strikes in defense of strikes.”
Nevertheless, on April 20 alone, Ukraine recorded more than 2,000 violations of the ceasefire by the Russians.
