Ukrainians do not believe in Ukraine’s economic breakthrough, but devaluation does not scare them – survey
14 May 16:35
In April 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index of Ukrainians decreased by 5.2 points to 79.1 points, according to the monthly Consumer Confidence in Ukraine survey by Info Sapiens, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
As explained in the company, “The Consumer Confidence Index shows a significantly negative trend in April, and the key driver of the decline was negative economic expectations.”
As a reminder, index values can vary from 0 to 200. The value is 200 if all citizens have a positive assessment of the economic situation. The index is equal to 100 when the shares of positive and negative assessments are equal. An index value of less than 100 means that negative assessments prevail in society.
What are the results of the April survey?
The Index of the Current Situation decreased and equals 59.8 points, which is 0.7 points lower than the level of this indicator in March. Components of this index have undergone the following changes:
– index of Current Personal Financial Standing increased by 1.1 points and equals 55.7 points
– index of Propensity to Consume decreased by 2.5 points to the level of 63.9.
Index of Economic Expectations decreased by 8.2 points and equals 91.9 p. The dynamics of this Index components is as follows
– Index of Expectations of Changes in Personal Financial Standing equals 92.3 points, which is 3 points lower than the indicator in March
– Index of Expectations of the Country’s Economic Development over the Next Year decreased by 11.6 points and equals 76.2 points;
– Index of Expectations of the Country’s Economic Development over the Next 5 Years decreased by 10.1 points compared to the previous month and equals 107.3 points.
In April, the indicator of Index of Expectations of Changes in Unemployment increased by 2 points to the level of 121.1.
Index of Inflationary Expectations increased by 0.2 points to the level of 183.3.
Index of Devaluation Expectations decreased by 20.1 points and equals 128.2 points.
Info Sapiens reminds that the consumer confidence survey in Ukraine has been conducted since June 2000.
Consumer confidence index in Ukraine is determined on the basis of a sample survey of households in the country. During the survey, 1000 people aged 16 and older are interviewed. How the Index is calculated can be found here.
Businesses improved their economic expectations in April
In the first quarter of 2025, business assessments of business activity in the next 12 months continued to improve, as well as forecasts for attracting investment amid a moderate increase in inflation and stabilization of exchange rate expectations. This is evidenced by the results of the NBU’s survey of company executives.
The index of business expectations of enterprises amounted to 108.2% compared to 101.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The survey participants improved their estimates of all components of the index, most notably in terms of total sales and the number of employees. Businesses in 14 regions, of all sizes, types, and areas of activity, expect a revival in business activity.
The hostilities and their consequences remained the most significant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production. At the same time, the impact of the shortage of skilled workers increased by 2.5 times over the past two years.
Businesses have significantly improved their estimates of the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Respondents from 13 regions, representing all types and areas of economic activity, as well as size by number of employees, expect production to increase.
The weakening of exchange rate expectations continued: the average value of the exchange rate that respondents expect in 12 months is 44.23 UAH/USD. USD (in the previous quarter – 44.42 UAH/USD). 61.6% of respondents expect the hryvnia exchange rate to fluctuate between 42.01 and 45.00 UAH/USD in the next 12 months. USD.
KSE Institute’s economic barometer indicates stable development
Ukraine’s economy remains stable. At the same time, the risks associated with global instability and the situation on the labor market are growing. This is stated in the April macroeconomic review by KSE Institute.
Experts predict GDP growth of about 3% annually and acceleration of its growth in 2026-27 after the end of the war. A key factor for a sustainable post-war recovery will be productivity growth driven by investment.
The fiscal deficit is expected to decline from 16% of GDP in 2025 to 10.2% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, as revenues are projected to grow. Inflation will start to slow down by mid-2025.
