War

Ukrainian missiles: how domestic production can change the balance of power at the front

ANALYSIS FROM

Oleksiy Petrov, director of the state enterprise Spetstechnoexport, said that Ukraine is working on its own cruise and ballistic missiles, and they may be available to the Defense Forces as early as 2025. He said this in an interview with OBOZ.UA. According to Petrov, he has already seen flight tests of domestic missiles and “there are results.”

The head of the company emphasized the positive changes in the development of domestic production in Ukraine, particularly in the private sector. For example, Ukrainian factories have started producing NATO-standard 155-mm shells that can hit targets at long range, which provides an advantage in combat.

Journalists [Kommersant] journalists have been looking into what kind of Ukrainian missiles we are talking about, what are their characteristics, range and speed.

Ukraine’s missile program began in 2016

Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev in an exclusive interview for [Kommersant] about the state of Ukraine’s missile program and the prospects for its development in a full-scale war. According to the expert, despite the recent successful tests of Ukrainian missiles, the missile program in Ukraine has actually been frozen since 2016, which means that progress in this area is the result of the resumption of existing developments, not a new stage.

“Unfortunately, the missile program has been effectively frozen since 2016. Therefore, we cannot say that these events are something new. Another question is why, in the third year of a full-scale war, only now have they found the funds for successful tests, and not for the industrial production of tactical systems with a range of 500 km,” Snegiryov said.

He also emphasized that the current successful tests do not mean full-scale production of missiles. However, it is important that Ukraine has begun to develop and use new types of missiles, including those that can significantly enhance its combat capabilities. In particular, we are talking about cruise missiles of the “Palyanytsia” type, which, according to the analyst, have already been successfully tested and are capable of hitting targets at a great distance – both in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and in the Russian Federation.

“The range of these missiles can reach 700 kilometers. Taking into account the tactical and technical characteristics of the missiles, strategically important objects are located in the area of destruction, in particular the Black Sea Fleet base, which includes not only Sevastopol but also Sochi. Also in the strike zone are Russian military facilities, including the Engels airfield in the Saratov region, which is a base for strategic bombers,” Snegirev explains.

New challenges for Russia: Kremlin should think about improving its air defense forces

The expert noted that this is of not only military but also political importance for Ukraine. Having its own production of such missiles makes it possible to conduct strikes on Russian territory without the need to obtain permission from Western partners.

“This is a very important point. The Ukrainian side will not need the permission of the leading Western countries to launch strikes against Russia, because we are talking about our own missile production. This gives Ukraine additional political advantages in the international context,” the analyst explains.

Dmytro Snegiryov also emphasized the combined nature of missile attacks, when both ballistic and cruise missiles are used simultaneously. According to him, this makes it much more difficult to counteract enemy air defense systems.

“During the large-scale invasion, Russia launched about 1,300 Iskander ballistic missiles at Ukraine, and only 76 of them were shot down. This indicates serious problems in the air defense systems, and Russia may face similar difficulties if Ukraine launches mass production of its missiles,” Snegirev said.

Speaking about the possibilities of scaling up missile production, the analyst noted that there are several factors that could affect this process, including financial and political factors.

Thus, the development of Ukraine’s missile program, despite delays, is gaining strategic importance for the country. After almost a decade-long pause, Ukraine was able to resume its missile technology development, which brings not only military but also political benefits. However, as Dmytro Snegirev notes, this is not the ultimate goal. Significant financial and political efforts are still needed, and the issue of political pressure from the West may also affect future stages of production and use of Ukrainian missiles. In any case, the ability to conduct combat operations with its own arsenal of missiles can significantly change the rules of the game.

Author – Daryna Glushchenko