Policy

Ukraine informs U.S. about decision to fire Zaluzhnyi: new details WP

The authorities of Ukraine informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to dismiss the head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, reports with reference to the publication The Washington Post.

White House officials did not support or object to the planned ouster of Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, saying it’s President Volodymyr Zelensky’s sovereign choice/

“Zelensky has yet to issue a formal decree announcing the ouster of Zaluzhny, and it is uncertain when that might happen. The advance notice to Washington, which has not been previously reported, reflects the influential role of the United States as Ukraine’s most powerful military and political backer. The early warning also provided the White House an opportunity to urge Zelensky to reconsider the pivotal decision — even though it decided against doing so”,

— the article says.

As the publication notes, the departure of Zaluzhny, one of the most popular figures in Ukrainian society, could affect troop morale and shake the confidence of Western donors as Ukraine’s military struggles to fend off advancing Russian forces. But any move by the United States to challenge a decision by Zelensky, could be seen as exercising undue influence.

“The perception of division at the top in Kyiv is not helpful for Ukraine, but the U.S. government should not get entangled in it,”

said Steven Pifer, an Eastern Europe expert at Stanford University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

Zelensky could choose to delay action on the decision indefinitely, but that appeared unlikely, said people familiar with his thinking, notes WP.

“During a tense meeting on Monday, Zaluzhny argued that recruits are necessary for success on the battlefield. Ukraine also needs to prepare for personnel losses, which are expected to be comparable to last year’s, he said”,

— the article says.

The publication clarifies that Zelenskyy refused Zaluzhnyi’s call to mobilize 500,000 people, because this step would be extremely unpopular and because Ukraine does not have the money to pay such a large number of military personnel salaries and other payments without a significant increase in taxes.

Who will replace Zaluzhnyi?

WP confirms that there are two main candidates for the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, and the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

“Finding a replacement for Zaluzhny is a significant challenge. One potential candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. The 38-year-old has a background in special forces, not as an army commander. His appointment would potentially signal a move toward asymmetric tactics — such as drone strikes deep into Russian territory”,

— the article says.

But it is unclear if he wants the position, said a person familiar with the matter.

“He loves his job and may want to keep just blowing stuff up in Russia,” said the person.

Another option is Oleksandr Syrsky, the current ground forces commander. The 58-year-old was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022.

But among rank-and-file soldiers, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire too long in theeastern city of Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.

“He’s a Gen. Patton-type character,” said the person close to Zelensky. “He doesn’t have a human resources gene in his body.”

Angela Stent, a Russia expert and former U.S. intelligence official considers, Whoever replaces Zaluzhny, it may not end the public disputes between the general and the president, “and he will remain a popular figure in Ukraine.

“It is unclear how it would affect Ukraine’s military performance. That would depend on who succeeds him and how his successor is viewed by the rest of the military — and how effective his successor is on the battlefield»,

— she added.

History of the confrontation

The confrontation between Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has been discussed almost since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion. Zelenskyi is rumoured to see Zaluzhnyi as a competitor, given the latter’s popularity among the people. According to a public opinion poll released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on 18 December 2023, 88% of Ukrainians trust Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, while 62% trust Zelenskyy.

Zelenskyy’s dislike of Zaluzhnyi seems to have reached a new level after Zaluzhnyi published an op-ed in The Economist last November. In the article, the commander-in-chief wrote that the Ukrainian army had hit the ceiling of technology provided by its partners, and the current moment on the front corresponds to the current technological advantage over the enemy. He also gave a cautious forecast for 2024, saying that there would most likely be no beautiful and profound breakthrough, but instead a balance of devastating destruction and losses. Zelenskyy’s office reacted negatively to the article, and the president himself later said at a press conference that he expected “very specific things on the battlefield” from the army command.

The two Commanders-in-Chief seem to constantly disagree on specific actions at the front. For example, according to a number of media outlets, Zaluzhnyi allegedly believed that there was no point in holding Bakhmut at such a high cost, but Zelenskyi thought otherwise.

Read also:

Will Zaluzhny be fired by the end of the week? Insights, forecasts and expectations