Ukraine expects the lowest wheat harvest in 13 years: causes and consequences
25 April 20:04
In 2025, Ukraine may harvest only 17.9 million tons of wheat, the lowest figure in 13 years and 23% less than in 2024. This forecast was made public by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Kyiv, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing Reuters.
The reason is extremely dry land during the sowing season and low profitability of production, which led to a reduction in acreage.
Dry soils duringthesowing season. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center recorded historically low reserves of productive moisture in Odesa, Kherson, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions.
Low profitability of production. Due to economic difficulties, farmers reduced the area under wheat.
Consequences of the war. The armed conflict has led to the loss of some agricultural land, which has also led to a decrease in planted areas.
Possible consequences
A decline in wheat exports could have a significant impact on the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Ukraine has traditionally been an important player in the global grain market, and any reduction in sales affects not only the economy but also its reputation as a reliable exporter. There is also a risk of rising domestic food prices, especially for flour and bakery products, which depend on domestic grain supply.
For many farmers and agricultural enterprises, such a season could be financially disastrous. In regions where yields have traditionally depended on rainfall, farmers are already reconsidering their crop rotation approaches, favoring crops that are less dependent on rainfall. Some farmers are abandoning the spring campaign altogether, cutting costs to avoid losses.
Impact on the global market
Ukraine accounts for about 30% of global wheat exports. A lower harvest could lead to a shortage of supply on the global market.
Future outlook
Despite the unfavorable conditions, experts say that favorable weather may improve the condition of crops in the future. However, the situation remains worrisome, and farmers hope for better weather conditions to preserve the harvest.
Overall, the situation with the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 is a serious challenge for the agricultural sector and requires attention from the government and the international community. Support for small and medium-sized agribusinesses, investments in irrigation and adaptive technologies may be the key to overcoming the crisis in the medium term.
Read also: Ukrainian in price: which agricultural products from Ukraine are in the highest demand in the world
Harvest 2025: how farmers and experts see it
In 2025, the global grain production will show mixed dynamics, reflecting the influence of climatic conditions, geopolitical factors and changes in agricultural policies of different countries.
Wheat
Global wheat production is forecast to reach a record 796 million tons in 2025, up 1% year-on-year. This growth is driven by the expansion of planted areas and improved yields in the European Union, especially in France and Germany. However, in some regions, such as Eastern Europe and the United States, yields are expected to decline due to dry conditions and other unfavorable factors.
Corn
According to the forecasts of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in 2025/26 marketing year, corn production in the U.S. will reach a record 15.58 billion bushels, due to an increase in acreage and expected high yields. In Brazil, corn production is also expected to grow due to the expansion of planted areas and favorable weather conditions.
Rice
Global rice production in 2025 is projected to reach 543 million tons, which is a new record. The main drivers of growth are the expansion of planted areas and favorable weather conditions in Asian countries such as India, Cambodia and Myanmar.
Total grain production
The total world grain production in 2025 is estimated at 2.849 billion tons, which is 0.3% less than in the previous year. This decline is due to a decrease in production of some types of grains in certain regions.
World stocks and trade
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain stocks will decrease by 1.5% to 873.3 million tons by the end of 2025. This decline is due to a reduction in corn stocks, especially in China. At the same time, wheat and rice stocks are expected to be at or above previous years.
Global grain trade in 2025 is forecast at 478.9 million tons, down 6.7% from the previous year. The decline in trade is due to lower imports from countries such as China and reduced exports from some regions.
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