Ukraine’s defence industry continues to build up its capabilities, despite the enemy’s campaign of attacks on factories and damage to the power generation sector – a batch of Bohdan self-propelled artillery systems on Tatra chassis, paid for by Denmark, has been delivered.
18 vehicles in two months, I think, not counting those paid for by the Ukrainian budget.
This is a €300 million package from Copenhagen for the defence industry – drones, self-propelled guns, production expansion, and various R&D projects.
Is it a major breakthrough? It’s definitely a breakthrough.
A wedge bolt, a 52-calibre barrel, an armour capsule, a fire control system, and a loading mechanisation upgraded from version to version are a sophisticated self-propelled artillery system that not many countries on the planet can produce. In the EU, there are 5 manufacturers of this kind.
Increased production always means a drop in the price per unit, which is also an important bonus in our environment of constant resource shortages.
The current price of $2.5 million per unit is quite a lot, because many components, mechanisms and chassis are imported.
Obviously, both strategic bombing campaigns in winter and summer 2024 against the military-industrial complex and energy sector, which were supposed to affect production, rail transport and products of civilian allies, did not achieve their goals.
If in many places there are no power cuts for civilians, then the military sector’s plants are running like clockwork, and if there are no critical delays in civilian trains, freight trains are running as well.
This is also evident from indirect signs – the enemy estimates the monthly production of drones in Ukraine (drone coalition, state, private, volunteers) at 125,000, with a growing trend, unmanned boats attacked Novorossiysk, missiles hit the port of Kavkaz and strategic warehouses several times, dozens of self-propelled artillery systems seem to have started mass production of 155 mm shells.
Are these self-propelled artillery systems enough? Of course not. Even with the production of all EU manufacturers in favour of Ukraine – dozens of French Caesars, dozens of British AS90s, dozens of German and Swedish vehicles.
We are not even talking about rearmament and replacing losses. But we need vehicles for training units, some will always be in the process of being repaired and eliminating “childhood diseases” based on complaints, and we need guns to cover the border in the north and Belarus. Plus, there are barrels that have been manufactured, a shortage of spare parts, and dead engines.
Plus the appropriate infrastructure – base camps from which to move into the red zone with the threat of the KGB, caponiers, concrete and electronic warfare.
However, in order to conduct an offensive on the level of the Kherson or Kharkiv offensives, several hundred long-range self-propelled artillery systems, heavy MLRSs for counter-battery fire, defeat of the tactical rear and isolation of the battlefield are needed.
With the consumption of 50,000 shells and missiles, the loss of several dozen vehicles (irretrievably and for repair, broken running gear, jammed engines, and all that).
These are the realities. Not in order to deprive a couple of battalions of combat capability, take prisoners and improve the tactical situation in the sector.
Or to hit training grounds, rear depots, emergency vehicle assembly points, UAV crews, and cover formations, causing damage in a war of attrition.
Specifically, for operational purposes – to threaten the Black Sea region, to counterattack Pokrovske before they start chewing up the agglomeration, to prevent them from counterattacking the security zone in Kursk region.
Of course, we also need modular storage facilities for ammunition, strategic and operational stockpiles, military chemicals, spare parts, and expanded barrel production, because we don’t yet know the exact average life of the batches, and it may be less than the Western ones.
Unfortunately, there is no other way: investments from the West and bonds, nationalisation of enterprises that do not meet the SDO, benefits for those that do, industrialisation, and reforms of vocational training. We have 120-130 licence plates, half of which are for rifle units, the National Guard, police and border guards, various TROs, and second- and third-stage brigade formations that need wheeled armoured personnel carriers.
You can judge for yourself whether this is a lot or not, 12-14 units per month. Yes, we have overtaken France in terms of production and are on the right track, but there is a lot of work and serious challenges ahead.
Author: Kirill Danilchenko