War

Ukraine at a Crossroads: New Challenges on the Battlefield and Strategic Priorities

ANALYSIS FROM

Ukrainian forces are currently facing a number of serious challenges, and the situation in the Kurakhove area resembles the threatening scenario that was previously observed in Avdiivka. How long will Ukraine be able to hold back the enemy, what strategy will have to be chosen and how long will the Russian army last – [comersant] analyzed this together with leading experts Roman Svitan and Vasily Pehn.

The Russians are already beginning to complain about the huge losses, but they continue to advance. In particular, the situation in Kurakhove is beginning to resemble the events in Avdiivka, when Russian troops tried to create a “pincer” around Ukrainian positions, Vasyl Pehnyo said.

“The situation in Kurakhove is very similar to what happened in Avdiivka in early January this year, when two large pincers formed around the town. So, on the one hand, of course, the pace that the Russians are demonstrating and the resources they are using to ensure this pace is not an outstanding achievement. On the other hand, these are still painful losses for us,” says Vasyl Pehnyo

Thus, Ukrainian positions in Donetsk region, in particular in densely populated areas, allow to effectively deter the enemy, but beyond Pokrovsk the Russians are facing a less densely populated area with fewer defensive fortifications, states Pehnyo.

“The situation forces us to adapt to the proportions that are now emerging on the battlefield, where the enemy’s numerical superiority affects the dynamics of advancement,” Vasyl Pehnyo

The Russian military campaign is exhausted, but the pressure remains

Military expert Roman Svitan emphasized in an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrainian that the offensive potential of the Russians in Ukraine has decreased, forcing them to concentrate their efforts on narrow sections of the front.

“If Russian troops are moving forward, it is only on a limited frontline. Russia’s military campaign of 2024 is coming to an end, and now they are trying to maintain pressure only in certain areas, reducing it in others,” explained Roman Svitan

The main offensive is now taking place on the Kurakhivske ledge and in the areas of Kupiansk and Siversk, Svitan said. However, the pace of the Russian advance has dropped significantly in recent weeks. The main reasons for this decline are the reduction of reserves in the Russian army, the limited use of equipment due to weather conditions, and the increasing pressure of Ukrainian forces through artillery and FPV drone strikes.

What can change the situation on the battlefield in the near future? The promised financial assistance from the United States in the amount of up to $6 billion will allow us to strengthen our positions in the current frontline areas and deter the enemy’s offensive, Svitan summarizes.

Imbalance of forces and problems with mobilization

Pehnyo also drew attention to the challenges facing Ukraine in terms of mobilization, training, and material support. The expert emphasized that our country does not have sufficient resources to effectively deter the enemy.

“There is probably no need to dramatize. However, we have come to the current stage of the war with 600 thousand Russians, with the prospect of their increase to 750 thousand, and we do not have complete units at this time. That is, we have an imbalance in the proportions of forces,” Vasyl Pehnyo

There are problems with the mobilization and training of our soldiers, who often do not receive sufficient motivation and psychological support, the military observer notes.

“Even those who were mobilized, because they were mobilized very late, because the law was delayed, did not receive sufficient quality training, even quality motivational work, moral and psychological work, etc.” – Vasyl Pehnyo

“Rely on our own strength”: military independence as a new vector

The problem of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, in particular, is the insufficient supply of high-quality equipment and weapons to Ukrainian troops. We depend on the help of Western allies who support us, but this may not be enough for sustainable resistance, says Pehnyo.

“We rely a lot on our Western partners, they pump us up. But what is our plan, what should we do? Continue to lose territory, lose people, have serious problems within the state? Probably not. We need to get a grip on ourselves and produce more weapons ourselves,” Vasyl Pehnyo

We need to become self-sufficient: develop our own defense industry, increase production of drones, armored vehicles and ammunition. The West is no longer ready to support us indefinitely, especially given the situation in the United States and Europe, the military analyst says.

“Like Israel or South Korea, we need to start building our own defense system, relying primarily on our own forces,” Pehnyo said

Diplomatic front and search for new allies

Russia has received strategic support from North Korea and Iran, and China is an important political partner for Moscow.

In this situation, Ukraine should intensify its foreign policy and look for alternative partnership options, Pehnyo emphasized.

“We have partners, we have agreements, but we have no allies. We need to look for some alternatives in the current state of affairs,” Vasyl Pehnyo

At the same time, the Ramstein format, which was supposed to be transferred to NATO, is stuck somewhere in the middle, Pehnyo says. Moreover, we need to speak frankly about what is happening to Ukraine, inside the country. There are a lot of unclear issues: from corruption and personnel changes to social tensions, Pehnyo says.

Deterring the Russian offensive: the main task for Ukraine

Ukraine must move to a new defense strategy that will take into account possible changes in the foreign policy situation in the West, particularly in the United States and Germany, where election processes are also starting. Ukraine expects that after the political changes in the West, there will be more certainty about support.

Moreover, Ukraine should be prepared for the possibility that the United States may start shifting the price tag for the war to Europe, says Vasyl Pehnyo. And despite the growing Russian advantage at the front, Ukraine’s task in the near future will be to survive.

“Undoubtedly, the Russians will advance. It is important for us to endure this pressure with minimal losses in terms of territory and people,” says Vasyl Pehnyo

How long will we have to stand like this? Whether it will be the beginning of next year or the summer of next year, the observer does not undertake to make a forecast. However, I am sure that this is our strategic plan for now: to endure to a certain point and then start developing our own plan of influence on the Russian Federation.

“In order to force the Russians, we will not be able to defeat them in direct assaults. We won’t be able to drive them out of Donetsk by direct assault, because it will just be a ‘meat assault’. We need to make sure that they simply cannot get these territories by knocking out their logistics, warehouses, destroying their control points,” Vasyl Pehnyo

To summarize, Ukraine cannot completely destroy the Russian army, but the strategic task is to create conditions under which the enemy will not be able to hold the occupied territories. At the same time, this will require patience and understanding that some territories may be temporarily lost in the process, Pehnyo summarizes.

Author – Anastasia Fedor