Ukraine is preparing for record gas imports: what will happen to household tariffs?
27 March 13:38
ANALYSIS
Ukraine may import up to 5 billion cubic meters of gas between April 2025 and April 2026 due to the consequences of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the rapid depletion of underground storage facilities. This was stated by Dmytro Sakharuk, CEO of D.Trading, DTEK’s trading division.
“We believe that Ukraine will need up to 5 billion cubic meters in the season from April 2025 to April 2026,”
– Sakharuk said.
According to him, this is significantly more than in previous seasons, when imports reached a maximum of 1 billion cubic meters.
Komersant ukrainskyi asked Ukrainian energy experts to explain the situation. We asked them how critical the situation is now, where and at what price Ukraine will buy such volumes of fuel, and also raised the main question – will the gas tariff for households remain at the current level?
Causes of the deficit
Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko claims that the situation has become critical due to two main factors: insufficient reserves before the winter and targeted Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure.
“The situation arose for two reasons. The first is that we did not stockpile enough gas before the autumn-winter period. This applies primarily to Naftogaz. The second reason is the enemy’s shelling of the infrastructure in recent months, specifically the gas production infrastructure. This resulted in a shortage. Gas withdrawals began at a more intensive pace than expected. That’s why the underground gas storage facilities have been emptied,”
– he explains exclusively for
The expert adds that various sources report that Ukraine has reduced gas production by 25-40% as a result of Russian strikes. However, the exact figure is classified.
Whatever the case, the past heating season showed that significant adjustments need to be made to the country’s energy balance planning. However, according to his estimates, we need an additional 4 billion cubic meters, not 5.
“Now we need to import about 4 billion cubic meters of gas, which is up to $2 billion, predictably by the next autumn-winter period,”
– the expert notes.
Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev agrees with him. He talks about miscalculations in preparing for the heating season, which led to such a shortage under Russian shelling.
“On some days in February, the volume of imports was up to 25 million cubic meters, while consumption was around 85 million cubic meters. That is, imports amounted to about a third of consumption on those days,”
– said the expert exclusively for
He believes that this situation raises legitimate questions to those responsible for preparing for the heating season, but so far the authorities do not seem to be looking for the guilty. However, the government has decided to form a safety cushion.
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Where will Ukraine buy gas?
Since its own production is no longer enough to cover all its needs, Ukraine is forced to consider European markets as its main source of gas. The main focus should be on diversifying supplies to minimize the risks of dependence on individual suppliers.
“Ukraine can buy gas on exchanges. It doesn’t matter which European exchanges, which countries sell it, which traders – it doesn’t matter at all. The main thing is the result,”
– explains Volodymyr Omelchenko.
He adds that Ukraine can even buy liquefied gas of American origin through Polish or even Balkan terminals. In the latter case, it can be transported through the Balkan gas pipeline.
Will there be gas for the population at 7.96?
One of the most sensitive issues for Ukrainians is whether the price of gas for households will remain at UAH 7.96 per cubic meter, as it is now
Volodymyr Omelchenko emphasizes that this price can only be maintained through cross-subsidization or government support.
“If the task is to keep the price, then maybe we can. But at what expense? By cross-subsidizing from the budget. Someone will lose money from the budget – the army or some socially vulnerable categories of the population. There is also a law of energy conservation in the economy,”
– says the expert.
Gennadiy Ryabtsev, in turn, draws attention to the fact that the current gas price for households is artificial and does not correspond to the market value.
“This price is artificial. It is not determined by the volume of gas in storage facilities or the volume of Ukrainian gas production. It is determined by the Cabinet of Ministers as part of the fulfillment of special obligations by gas producers to ensure public interests in the natural gas market. This is how it officially sounds,”
– he comments.
However, Ryabtsev adds, these special obligations contradict European legislation. And as part of the European integration process, the government has committed itself to canceling special obligations in the natural gas and electricity markets. That is, the current electricity and gas tariffs should be canceled and replaced by the market price, he clarifies.
“But the problem is that we do not have a natural gas market… And there is a need to comply with European standards. Therefore, it is likely that both UAH 4.32 per kilowatt-hour and UAH 7.9 per cubic meter of gas will be revised in May this year.”
– emphasizes Gennadiy Ryabtsev and clarifies that this has nothing to do with the presence or absence of reserves.
Will Ukraine and Europe cope without Russian gas?
Despite all the difficulties, Ukraine has been without direct gas supplies from Russia for almost ten years. And the share of Russian gas on the European market today does not reach even 10%, says Gennadiy Ryabtsev.
“The natural gas market has become a global market. It has ceased to depend on any one type of supply or supply from one source. A large number of suppliers of not only pipeline gas but also liquefied gas have emerged. Now on the European market, out of 550 or 600 billion cubic meters, Russia accounts for 47 billion cubic meters, according to Gazprom’s estimates. I think we can easily do without it,”
– summarizes Gennadiy Ryabtsev.
So, there are no problems with gas purchases in the world today, except for its price. After all, gas is not cheap in the current European market, which is the main one for Ukraine. Given this, as well as the specific requirements of European institutions, it is quite possible to assume that gas tariffs for Ukrainian consumers will increase next season.
However, from a national perspective, with proper preparation and proper planning, it is quite possible and even necessary to prepare effectively for the next heating season.
