“Ukraine is an element of controlled chaos in the US strategy against China” – Amelin
24 April 16:30
The current US policy is primarily aimed at countering China’s growing hegemony, and the Ukrainian issue is just one element of “controlled chaos” aimed at undermining China’s economic power. This is the opinion of analyst Anatoly Amelin, who published a detailed analysis of the Trump administration’s geopolitical strategy on his Facebook page, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
“I have bad news again. First of all, for myself. Trump is not a fool or an idiot. His recent decisions are part of a long-range plan,”
– Amelin writes, emphasizing that this plan aims to “eliminate the main competitor – China.”
The analyst explains in detail the direct connection between the Ukrainian issue and the Chinese factor in world politics, although this connection, according to him, is “direct, although not immediately obvious.”
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Chinese hegemony (approaching)
According to Amelin, the US defense doctrine identifies China as the main enemy, given its growing influence in key areas. The expert provides a list of factors of the approaching Chinese hegemony:
- leadership in GDP at purchasing power parity;
- dominance in world trade;
- control over critical materials;
- leadership in the number of registered patents;
- reduction of the backlog in the semiconductor sector;
- rapid approach to leadership in the field of artificial intelligence;
- building the most powerful army in the world (by 2027);
- a key role in the BRICS as an anti-American economic union;
- introduction of digital currencies to replace the dollar;
- transition to the yuan in international payments;
- global leadership in the production of automobiles, metallurgy, titanium, chemicals and electronics.
Amelin pays special attention to the methods by which China has achieved its economic dominance:
“China has dozens of long-term strategies (which, unlike Ukraine, it systematically implements). Through unfair competition (artificially undervaluing the yuan, unlike Ukraine, where the hryvnia is artificially overvalued), they freely captured markets, destroying competition,”
– the analyst notes.
He also points to China’s systemic policy of corruption in its relations with partners and the practice of providing zero loans to its companies to finance foreign economic activity.
Amelin argues that analysts at the US State Department and the CIA are realistically assessing the risks of losing global influence and are looking for ways to eliminate the Chinese threat without a direct military conflict, which is too risky.
“Its [China’s] weakest point is its markets. World trade. And this is where you can strike. And the faster, the more effective the blow will be,”
– the expert emphasizes.
Controlled chaos and Ukraine’s place
In his opinion, Trump’s policy is aimed at exactly this – through tariffs against Chinese products and China’s trading partners, a reduction in world trade and the launch of a global recession.
“When you can’t use the logic of direct action, you unleash controlled chaos. The logic of which only you understand. A wave of recessions, crises in various sectors (finance and the stock market, banking, manufacturing, and supply chains) will simply sweep away China’s economic potential,”
– Amelin explains the US strategy.
The analyst believes that Ukraine’s role in this global confrontation is insignificant:
“Where is Ukraine here? Nowhere in particular. As part of the perfect storm that is being prepared, it is one of the small elements of launching controlled chaos,”
– he notes.
Amelin concludes that the old international institutions have ceased to function effectively:
“The world has realized that there are no old institutions: NATO is a fiction. The UN, the OSCE are institutions that can only express concern. The IAEA – well, you know. WHO – they proved themselves during the fake pandemic. The WTO is on the sidelines.”
Concluding his analysis, the expert emphasizes that “the rule of law has given way to the rule of force” and draws an important conclusion for Ukraine:
“Ukraine can only rely on itself(!) militarily and economically. It has no friends. There are temporary allies. There are many enemies”.
According to the analyst, only “maximum concentration(!) and efficiency will allow Ukraine to get through the impending chaos.”
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Trade war between the US and China
The trade confrontation between the world’s two largest economies escalated sharply in early 2025 after Trump’s re-election. on February 1, Washington imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of “unfair trade” and manipulating the yuan exchange rate. on March 4, tariffs were raised by another 10%, bringing the total level of duties to 20%.
In response, China announced the introduction of 15% duties on American agricultural products and 10% duties on other goods. This was followed by a series of announcements of new tariffs from both sides.
As a result, as of April 24, 2025, the United States increased duties on Chinese imports to 145%, leaving temporary exemptions for certain technology goods at a rate of 20%. In response, China has introduced mirror measures, imposing duties on US goods up to 125% and restricting exports of critical rare earth metals. The trade confrontation between the two countries is escalating, with no signs of de-escalation.
