War

Oreshnik strike on Kyiv: is such a scenario possible and what is the real damage zone?

ANALYSIS FROM

The capital will cease to exist if Russia attacks Kyiv with an Oreshnik missile. This was stated by Hlib Repich, PhD in Chemistry, on the Kyiv 24 TV channel. According to him, if the missile reaches Khreshchatyk, it will demolish such neighborhoods as Lukianivka, Podil, Solomianka, Demiivka, and Pechersk. They will be destroyed to the foundations, and the windows will be smashed up to Vyshneve.

“That is, nuclear weapons, the nuclear power of this missile is more than enough,” says the chemist.

Is Kyiv under threat of a tactical nuclear strike and what could be the real damage zone – journalists [Kommersant] journalists investigated.

What could be the actual radius of destruction from a nuclear weapon?

Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap in an exclusive commentary for Komersant ukrainskyi commented on the statements about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, calling them “complete nonsense”. According to the expert, the use of tactical nuclear weapons does not require the destruction of large areas, as pseudo-experts constantly say.

“In fact, this is a very precise weapon designed to destroy concentrations of troops or armored vehicles,” explained Kryvolap.

He added that the effective radius of destruction of such weapons is only a few kilometers, and the level of radioactive contamination decreases rapidly within a few hours after the explosion. According to Kryvolap, such loud statements only sow panic among the population and do not bring any benefit to society.

“Well, it doesn’t make us stronger, it makes us more vulnerable mentally. People, that’s how people work, if there is any uncertainty, this uncertainty destroys the psyche. If there is certainty, the psyche begins to process all this information and bring everything into some kind of more or less real order,” the aviation expert notes.

In addition, Kryvolap expresses doubts about the presence of nuclear warheads in the missiles.

“Why? Because these missiles have not been tested, and Russia has not conducted nuclear tests. And if you don’t do nuclear tests, what do you need? You need a nuclear warhead when you have already adopted it,” the expert says.

Should Kyiv expect a nuclear strike?

As for the threats, aviation expert Kryvolap pointed out that although statements about the possible use of intercontinental missiles may create the impression of a global threat, the real situation is much less dramatic.

“Intercontinental missiles aimed at neighboring countries are strategically illogical. It would be an excessive escalation that would have serious consequences for everyone,” Kryvolap summarized.

He emphasized that despite the tense situation, the use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely.

At the same time, military expert Oleh Zhdanov, specially for [Kommersant] commented on the possible threat from the Oreshnik missile. Zhdanov explained that if the missile does have a nuclear warhead, the consequences would be catastrophic. However, he emphasized that it is important to clarify what kind of charge and action of this missile is being discussed.

“If the missile is nuclear, it will mean the complete destruction of the target with all the damaging factors that are characteristic of a nuclear explosion,” the expert said.

Does the Oreshnik missile not exist?

Regarding the threat to Kyiv, Zhdanov expressed doubts about the existence of the Oreshnik missile, which, according to the expert, may simply be a mistake by Putin himself.

“The Oreshnik missile most likely does not exist in nature. It may be a mistake by Putin himself, who confused the names. Even our Main Intelligence Directorate is already suggesting that it could be a Kedr ballistic missile system,” Zhdanov said.

At the same time, Zhdanov noted that the threat from such missiles may be relevant in terms of psychological pressure, rather than a direct military threat. However, Zhdanov also noted that only two countries have systems capable of dealing with such missiles – the United States and Israel.

“Intimidation is what can threaten us. However, in reality, we do not have effective missile defense systems capable of intercepting such a missile,” the military expert explained.

Thus, despite emotional statements about a possible nuclear strike, most military experts emphasize that such missiles do not pose such a catastrophic threat as described in the media. According to them, tactical nuclear weapons have a limited radius of destruction that is not capable of destroying an entire capital city. The radioactive contamination after such a strike decreases rapidly, and the real effect depends on the accuracy of the weapon.

At the same time, the possibility of using such weapons from a military point of view is unlikely, as it would lead to an excessive escalation of the war with severe international consequences.

Author – Daryna Glushchenko