“Trump has a plan, but neither Kyiv nor Moscow likes it” – Bortnik
10 February 16:40
US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg will not present a peace plan at the Munich Security Conference. He said this in response to a Bloomberg publication that indicated that he would do so.
“No, there are no such plans. I have not commented on them. The person who will present the ‘peace plan’ is the US president, not Keith Kellogg. We will be involved, we will help him with this. This will not happen next week. We will have discussions with European leaders and we will pass everything on to the US president. And we will move on,”
– he said last week.
So, as it turns out, Trump, who promised to end the Russian-Ukrainian war in 100 days, doesn’t even have a plan to do so yet. Meanwhile, Trump’s 20 days as President of the United States are over.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy also believes that Trump does not have a “peace plan” yet.
“There is no official plan yet. What is in certain publications… I am sure that this is not the official plan of President Trump,”
– zelenskiy commented last week.
Nevertheless, the Munich Security Conference is scheduled for February 14-16, and everyone is expecting at least signals, if not a clear plan, from the United States regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war. US President Donald Trump has been making a lot of noise about his alleged contacts with the Kremlin and claiming progress in negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Against this backdrop, everyone seems to have forgotten that the President of Ukraine had his own plan for victory, which, however, did not please our influential partners.
So Komersant ukrainskyi asked political scientist Ruslan Bortnik to comment on the situation. We asked him whether Trump really has a plan and where Zelenskyy’s peace plan has disappeared from the media agenda.
For Trump, “victory” means maintaining fear in Europe
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that for Donald Trump, “victory” in this war means, first of all, the cessation of hostilities, i.e., the fulfillment of one of his key election promises. However, there are other aspects as well.
“In addition, it is a significant reduction in American spending. And, most importantly, it is the preservation of fear in Europe. People in Ukraine often mistakenly think that providing security guarantees to Ukraine means playing along with Russia or reducing American involvement. But this is not the case. The absence of a stable final solution for Eastern Europe keeps the fear of a new war alive, which makes Europe more united around the United States and more dependent on it,”
– explains the expert.
He also emphasizes that Trump is trying to achieve several goals at the same time:
“This includes maintaining Europe’s loyalty to the United States and a willingness to pay more for security, such as the famous 5% of GDP for NATO, which, as they say in Germany, is unrealistic. The German defense minister has already said that 5% of GDP is 40% of the federal budget, and such spending is simply impossible. However, Trump wants to force the allies to invest more in NATO and also reduce American spending by fulfilling his own promises. So he has a plan, but neither Ukraine nor Russia likes it.”
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Why is Zelenskyy’s peace plan no longer being voiced?
Regarding Ukraine’s “victory plan,” Bortnik notes that some of its elements overlap with Trump’s approaches. And this can create the illusion of support.
“In fact, one of the key ideas of the Ukrainian victory plan is to give allies access to Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for support. And this model of a “deal” – not a deal, but an arrangement – is similar to what Trump is proposing. That’s why the President’s Office is now somewhat optimistic: if Trump has already accepted one of the points of our plan, he may support other positions of Ukraine. But it is extremely naïve to believe that the Ukrainian plan will be implemented in full or at least to a large extent.”
As a reminder, the allies rejected the first point of the Ukrainian victory plan, which provides for Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The next two points involve broad military support for Ukraine, and Ukraine’s “allies” are not happy about them either.
According to the political scientist, the key problem is that Ukraine’s plan provides for the military and political surrender of Russia, which does not meet either the current situation at the front or the strategic interests of the United States.
“Trump is not interested in Russia’s defeat, just as Biden was not interested in it. And it’s not just the nuclear factor. Russia’s complete defeat will mean its rapid rapprochement with China, which will create a powerful anti-American alliance. Russia is a key resource donor for China, and its dependence can significantly strengthen Beijing. And China is the main geopolitical adversary of the United States. Therefore, Trump, like Biden before him, will try to balance the situation rather than seek an absolute victory for Ukraine.”
Thus, according to the expert, the US strategy remains unchanged: Washington will try to prevent Russia’s catastrophic defeat while maintaining control over Europe through the threat of war.
“The formula for peace”
Throughout the full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine has been trying to present its vision of peace and victory to its partners and to gain their support. on October 11, 2022, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced to the leaders of the G7 countries a “formula for peace” to overcome the Russian threat. It included 10 points:
- Radiation and nuclear safety.
- Food security.
- Energy security.
- Release of all prisoners and deportees.
- Implementation of the UN Charter, restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and world order.
- Withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and cessation of hostilities.
- Return of justice.
- Counteracting ecocide.
- Preventing escalation.
- Fixing the end of the war.
The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution with the Ukrainian peace formula in 2023, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Seven states voted against it: Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, Mali, and Nicaragua. The abstentions included China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Armenia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would not negotiate on the basis of Zelenskyy’s “peace formula.”
zelenskyy’s “victory plan”
In October 2024, Ukraine presented a new plan to its partners – the “Ukraine’s Victory Plan”. It contains five key points covering military, economic, and political aspects. According to President Zelenskyy, this set of measures should help Ukraine win the war.
The first point of the plan relates to geopolitics and includes inviting Ukraine to join NATO. This will send an important signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and demonstrate the defeat of his geopolitical ambitions. Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance will ensure long-term peace and security in the region.
The second point focuses on defense. It is a list of weapons needed to support the Ukrainian military.
The third point concerns the deterrence of Russia. Ukraine proposes to create a non-nuclear deterrent package that can guarantee security against any threat from Russia. Zelenskyy emphasized that, realizing the possible response, Russia would rather choose negotiations than further escalation. A secret annex to this point has been passed on to the United States and other key allies.
The fourth point is about the economy. Among other things, it stipulates that Ukraine can share its natural resources, such as uranium, titanium, lithium, and others, with its allies.
Thefifth point is designed for the postwar period and provides for the participation of the Ukrainian military in ensuring security in Europe. According to it, Ukrainian soldiers can replace part of the US troops in Europe, strengthening NATO’s defense.
In the West, only such loyal Ukrainian allies as Latvia and Lithuania unconditionally supported Zelenskyy’s victory plan. Virtually all of Ukraine’s key partners-the United States, Britain, Germany, and France-reacted with extreme restraint and sometimes even outright negativity.
Trump’s victory has virtually nullified any theoretical “plans” for Ukraine. The world, along with our country’s European partners, is waiting for the United States to take the promised steps to resolve the conflict.
