NBU names the main reason for Ukrainian migration in 2024
8 November 20:50
The number of Ukrainians traveling abroad after prolonged power outages exceeded the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) forecast. This is stated in the October 2024 inflation report released by the national financial regulator.
It states that the risks of further decline in economic potential remain as a result of the war
potential, in particular due to the loss of people, territory, and production. The speed of the economy’s return to normal conditions will depend on the nature and duration of the war.
In addition, Russian aggression continues to generate the following risks
- additional budgetary needs, primarily to maintain defense capabilities;
- possible additional tax increases, which, depending on the parameters, may increase price pressure;
- further damage to infrastructure, especially energy and port infrastructure, which will limit economic activity and put pressure on prices from the supply side;
- deepening of negative migration trends and further increase in labor shortages in the domestic labor market.
Thus, the ongoing war and a significant shortage of electricity will lead to continued external migration.
In the summer of 2024, the risk of a larger outflow of migrants abroad than previously expected was realized due to the very difficult energy situation. Therefore, assumptions about the net outflow of external migrants in 2024 have been downgraded compared to previous estimates (to about 500 thousand people). At the same time, a larger outflow in the current year means a reduction in the number of those who plan and are able to leave, so in 2025 the outflow is assumed to be smaller than previously estimated (about 200 thousand).
As before, net return of migrants to Ukraine is expected to start in 2026, but due to adaptation in the new place and gradual normalization of economic conditions in Ukraine, the return will be somewhat lower than previously expected (about 200 thousand people).
