DIU confirms that Russia has created a plan to divide Ukraine into three parts
22 November 23:45
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine is aware of a document prepared in Russia with a so-called “forecast” of the development of the military-political situation in the world until 2045, which provides for a plan to “divide” Ukrainian territory into three parts. This was stated by the Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Vadym Skibitsky in a commentary to Interfax-Ukraine, Komersant ukrainskyi reports
Skibitsky said that the DIU has been familiarized with this document.
According to him, this document was prepared by the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces around December 2023.
“This document forms the basis for long-term defense planning for a certain period of time – at least 10 years. In particular, this document was developed for the period 2026-2035 with a perspective until 2045,” Skibitsky said.
He added that what is set out there concerns further developments at the global and regional levels, and, accordingly, the threats that Russia sees for itself in the future security environment.
The document contains a scenario of the division of Ukraine, which, according to Skibitsky, is connected with the Kremlin’s strategic goal of complete occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Russian leadership believes that the possession of Ukraine will provide economic, demographic and military power to strengthen Russia’s position.
How it will look like
Russia will insist on incorporating one of the regions within the fully and partially occupied regions of Ukraine.
The second is called a “pro-Russian state formation” and includes Kyiv. It envisages the formation of a state entity with pro-Russian authorities and a Russian military presence.
The third is called “disputed territories” and includes the western regions of Ukraine. The Kremlin believes that their future can be decided between Russia and other neighboring states, such as Hungary, Poland, and Romania.
The GUR also notes that the Kremlin expects to “resolve” the Ukrainian issue by 2026. This is due to the fact that the ongoing war has a significant impact on Russia’s economy, demographics and image, creating internal crises.
“And this scenario of further development with a possible division of the territory is relevant not even for 2035-45. It will already be relevant in the near future, for 2026, and maybe even earlier. You have heard Putin’s statements about Ukrainian territories. He has already said that Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea are allegedly the territories of the Russian Federation according to their constitution. And the map that has been published already shows that Russians perceive the occupied Ukrainian territories as new territories of Russia,” Skibitsky explained.
As confirmed by the GUR, the document also spells out a division that provides for the approval of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, or a necessarily “neutral” one, that is, without the country joining NATO.
“This is all analysis and assessment by the Russians. We can see how quickly they can change their plans, depending on their success, the international community’s reaction and the development of the situation,” Skibitsky added, noting that the Kremlin has already analyzed the threats that will be faced by Russia until 2050.
