Business

In 2025, the cost of housing in new buildings may increase by 15-25%

In 2025, depending on the stage of construction, the region where the new building is located, the quality and class of the object, the price increase in the primary housing market may range from 15% to 20-25%. This was stated by Marianna Bigunets, Sales Director of GAZDA Construction Company.

“2025 will be a difficult year in the real estate market. On the one hand, there are a number of objective factors that will affect the price environment. On the other hand, the purchasing power of citizens will remain at a rather low level,” the expert noted.

In her opinion, the main factors that may affect the cost of housing in new buildings are

• The rate of inflation. According to forecasts, in 2025, inflation may reach 10%, which will affect the rise in price of construction materials and construction and installation works.
• The situation in the foreign exchange market. It is expected that the weighted average exchange rate of the US dollar, to which prices in the primary market are usually “pegged,” may reach UAH 45. That is, the dollar may rise by 10% on average compared to the current year.
• Changes in taxation. We are talking about an increase in the military tax from 1.5% to 5% (except for military personnel and persons equated to them).
• The level of demand. In 2025, it is quite possible that prices will be differentiated by several criteria: 1) safe location (region of construction); 2) quality of the residential complex under construction; 3) construction status (construction dynamics); 4) variety of housing purchase mechanisms (mortgage, installment plan).

“The difference between the objects at the beginning of construction and at the stage of commissioning, depending on the class of the object, can reach 40%, which was typical for the “pre-war” market. Instead, the price of “one-class” properties in different regions may vary by 10%: for example, a high-quality comfort-class apartment in Uzhhorod may be more expensive than a comparable home in Dnipro or Poltava, regions that are less safe to live in. In other words, the “security markup” can be about 10% of the existing prices,” said Marianna Bihunets.

The expert emphasized the quality characteristics of the residential complexes that are of interest to potential buyers-investors. These include architectural solutions, energy efficiency, sound insulation, self-sufficient infrastructure, etc.

“Buyers have become more demanding, even “capricious” in some ways, choosing those residential complexes that have impeccable architectural and infrastructure solutions. And noise insulation and insulation are becoming urgent quality characteristics, in particular in the safest regions for living. However, next year, buyers will have a rather limited choice of truly high-quality facilities equipped according to European principles of noise absorption and insulation. And the price for such objects will be objectively higher than for other new buildings,” she emphasized.

As for the real level of demand in 2025, GAZDA Construction Company estimates that only about 20% of those who are financially able to buy a home (at full price, by installment plan or mortgage, including under the state program “eOselya”) will decide to invest in the primary housing market.

The company noted that a low level of demand can significantly increase competition in the primary market, especially in relatively safe regions such as Zakarpattia, Lviv, Bukovyna, and Kyiv. Developers can offer buyers more loyal terms of purchase, and in a number of respects, better quality housing than competitors.

In addition, according to the construction company, special offers have already appeared on the market that provide more favorable conditions for purchasing housing for war veterans.

“According to our estimates, in 2025, there will be an average of 2 apartments under construction for every real home buyer in safe regions. And competition will require developers to make a number of important decisions related to the ways of purchasing housing: for example, installment programs will be improved/improved: for example, a potential reduction in the down payment from 30-50% to 10-20%, extension of the installment period from 3 to 5 years,” said Marianna Bihunets.

According to the expert, the accentuated reorientation of the state mortgage program “eOselya” to the primary market should also be considered important in 2025. According to her forecast, next year, depending on a number of economic and military circumstances, about 30-35% of all housing purchases in the primary market may be made through this program (according to official statistics, the number of apartments purchased from a developer with the help of eHouse at the end of 2024 already reaches 24-25%).

The expert emphasized that the increase in housing purchases in the primary market under the eOselya program will be made possible by a new form of the construction object questionnaire, which simplifies the process of accrediting housing at the construction stage.

As for the share of purchases under other mechanisms, “commercial” bank mortgages may account for 5-7% of sales (mainly due to joint programs of banks and developers), the volume of purchase/sale transactions at full price will not exceed 10%, and the number of purchases through installment programs will be about 50% of total sales.

She emphasized that in the second half of 2025, the price growth of housing in the primary market may slow down somewhat. This may be due to both the expected decline in inflation and “military” circumstances (for example, in the event of the end of the “hot” phase of the war). Therefore, the expert predicts that major price changes may occur within 6-9 months.

“2025 will be a logical continuation of the “distress” in the primary market. However, according to macroeconomic forecasts, we should expect that starting from 2026, the economic situation will improve significantly, which will affect not only the pace of construction but also sales,” Marianna Bihunets summarized.

GAZDA Construction Company was established in 2007. During this time, the company’s portfolio includes 13 residential construction projects: more than 1500 apartments have been commissioned. The total area of commissioned real estate is more than 150 thousand m². Currently, 3 projects are under construction in Uzhhorod: ParkLand RC, Grand Hills RC and the new phase of Sherwood Cottage Town. GAZDA does not have a single object under construction.

The company specializes in the construction of mid-rise apartment buildings (5-9 floors), comfort class townhouses, comfort and premium cottage communities. Apartments range in size from 25 m² to 160 m². Townhouses range in size from 122 m² to 238 m².

In 2023, GAZDA commissioned 22 thousand m². Of these: ParkLand residential complex – 12 thousand m²; Dzherelna townhouses – 1 thousand m², Sherwood residential complex – 9.8 thousand m².

GAZDA offers a variety of options for apartments in its complexes: with a rough finish and individual wiring, or with a ready-made renovation from the developer. In addition, the company has its own design studio, MG Design Studio, which performs repairs from the developer and saves you time and money. About 5% of apartments are offered with a ready-made design renovation, including household appliances, furniture and textiles.

The company is a participant of the state preferential mortgage program “eOselya” (ParkLand and Sherwood residential complexes are accredited to participate in the program (there is a queue).