Policy

US pressure on Ukraine: why Trump wants to force Zelensky to sign a deal

ANALYSIS FROM

During a conversation with journalists, US President Donald Trump said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy intends to refuse to sign an agreement on the extraction of rare earth minerals.

This was reported by Reuters.

Trump warned the Ukrainian leader, noting that this step should not be taken as it could lead to serious negative consequences.

“He’s trying to pull out of the rare earths deal, and if that happens, he’s going to face big, big problems,” Trump emphasized.

Trump also reiterated that the United States opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO, despite Zelenskyy’s aspirations.

“He wants to become a member of NATO, but it’s never going to happen. He understands that,” the US president said.

Political blackmail, testing Zelenskyy’s reaction or real threats? Komersant ukrainskyi analyzed in detail.

Pressure from the US: Trump’s statements and the debt situation

People’s Deputy of Ukraine Sergiy Nagornyak in an exclusive commentary for Komersant ukrainskyi spoke about the pressure on Ukraine from the Donald Trump administration and the problems faced by the Ukrainian authorities in the framework of the agreement with the United States. Nagornyak noted that the Donald Trump administration is actively putting pressure on Ukraine through various public and non-public statements. In particular, Trump has repeatedly expressed the opinion that Ukraine should “pay” the United States for assistance in the form of weapons and material support.

“We see that such statements are made every day, either in tweets or posts on social media on the pages of the US president,” Nagornyak added.

Nagornyak emphasized that different versions of the “debt” that the United States is trying to impose on Ukraine change over time. At first, it was about $500 billion, then about $350 billion, and in some estimates the amount has dropped to $100 billion.

“This money did not always come to us. Some of it remained in the United States, and Ukraine received weapons, often not new and not always adapted for use,” the MP noted.

Energy cooperation: Joint mining

Nagornyak believes that an important step is the need to strengthen diplomatic relations not only with the Trump administration, but also with all representatives of the US Congress, both Republicans and Democrats.

“If we have an overwhelming majority of support in the U.S. Congress, we will be able to build more constructive cooperation with the new administration,” the MP said.

Mr. Nagornyak also emphasized the potential for cooperation with the United States in the energy sector, particularly in the extraction of mineral resources, such as oil and gas on the Black Sea shelf. According to him, cooperation in the energy sector could become an important element of ensuring security in the Black Sea.

“If the Americans, together with Ukraine, extract minerals on the Black Sea shelf, security in the Black Sea will be guaranteed,” Nagornyak said.

He expressed hope that the United States will be able to make progress towards a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine in its diplomacy with Russia.

“Today, Trump wants to report to the American people on his achievements in the first 100 days of his term. For him, perhaps, a greater achievement would be the end of the war in Ukraine or at least a long-lasting truce,” the MP said.

According to Nagornyak, Ukrainian diplomacy continues to look for opportunities to strengthen cooperation with the United States and achieve a lasting peace, which remains a priority for Ukraine in the face of war.

Military analyst Dmytro Snegirev in a conversation with journalists [Kommersant] about the prospects of a deal on natural resources between Ukraine and the United States, noting that it is not only a political but also an economic step for Ukraine. According to him, there are no risks. On the contrary, Ukraine receives serious bonuses in the form of security guarantees and development of the economic sector.

Control of oligarchic groups over mineral resources

The expert also emphasized that natural resource extraction in Ukraine is under the control of oligarchic circles with ties to Russian structures. He cites the example of MP Andrii Derkach, whose companies control Ukraine’s nuclear energy sector despite the National Security and Defense Council’s sanctions.

“This is not a question for the United States, but for the Ukrainian special services and law enforcement,” he emphasized.

Snegiryov also noted that a similar situation is observed in the case of Dmytro Firtash’s business, which controls part of the gas production and energy sectors.

What will Ukraine gain from the agreement?

According to the expert, if the agreement is signed, Ukraine will receive transparent extraction schemes and a clear understanding of where the money from the export of natural resources goes.

“The money will not go offshore, there will be strict control over production, sales and, most importantly, financial flows to the budget of Ukraine for its reconstruction,” Snegiryov said.

Political game or blackmail?

In response to US President Donald Trump’s statements about possible problems for Volodymyr Zelenskyy if he refuses to sign the deal, Snegiryov does not call it a “political game” or “blackmail.” He emphasizes that Trump’s statements are a kind of warning to the Ukrainian side.

“This is not blackmail. This is a statement of further actions on the part of the United States – the termination of military and technical assistance, macroeconomic support and intelligence sharing,” the analyst explained.

He also noted that this is a warning of possible actions on the part of the United States, and Ukraine should be prepared for this.

Snegiryov noted that the United States, by raising the stakes, is seeking to establish control over all key industries in Ukraine, including nuclear energy. This could be an important step to ensure stability in the country amid the threat of a technical default.

“This is not a raider seizure, it is a guarantee of security for Ukraine, especially in the nuclear energy sector. In the event of an attack on energy facilities, the country must receive reliable protection,” he said.

Warning of a possible default: what awaits Ukraine?

Mr. Snegirev emphasizes that Ukraine is on the verge of a technical default.

“The total debt of the Ukrainian budget has already exceeded $170 billion. We are not solvent. If macroeconomic assistance stops, what will we do? Salaries and pensions are paid at the expense of international aid,” the expert warned.

The analyst says that no one will forgive debts of this amount, and this is a real threat to the country. Therefore, the United States is taking preventive measures to protect Ukraine from a possible economic collapse.

Thus, the agreement on natural resources with the United States is not only about politics, but also about the stability of the Ukrainian economy in a difficult financial situation. The US is establishing control over Ukraine’s critical industries to avoid a technical default and ensure the country’s financial security. At the same time, Ukrainian oligarchs, who have been “feeding” on corruption schemes for years, may undergo significant changes in the new realities.