Turkey can replace Russia in the European gas market – media
2 January 11:11
After the termination of Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine, Turkey hopes to take at least a share of the market previously held by Russia. Turkey is coming to the fore as the only reliable alternative for gas supplies to Europe. Such opinions are now dominating the Turkish media, in particular, Hurriet, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European countries largely stopped buying Russian gas and turned to alternative sources. In particular, they have shifted to purchasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Norway, Qatar, and the United States. As of the end of 2023, the volume of Russian gas transported to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine decreased by about 28% compared to 2022, to 15 billion cubic meters.
Recently, Slovakia, Moldova, and Hungary continued to receive gas via the Ukrainian route. Therefore, stopping transit will particularly affect these countries. Moldova, which had been expecting such a decision, has already taken emergency measures (but Transnistria will have a hard time).
Turkey as an alternative to Russia
Hurriet believes that the current situation will further strengthen Turkey’s position as a safe gas alternative for Europe. Turkey has long stood out as a reliable gas transit route. This is due to both its geographical location and its gas infrastructure, which includes pipelines and floating installations, as well as its own gas production in the Black Sea. Since the outbreak of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey has been selling gas to countries such as Moldova, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Romania, and Hungary. Using its own gas production and LNG sources, it sells gas to Bulgaria, Macedonia, Hungary, Moldova, and Romania.
According to energy expert and founder of MOBEN Consulting Emin Emrah Danış, although there are many parameters, it is certain that Turkey’s position will become stronger.
“These are political and commercial issues… Since Soviet times, Europe has been the most important market for Russian gas, and Russia has been the largest source for Europe. The cessation of Russian gas supplies may force countries in the region to look for alternative sources. Turkey has a very serious gas infrastructure and can deliver. Turkey is one of the most important routes, especially for the countries of Southeast Europe,”
– says the expert.
At the same time, it is known that today Turkey receives gas from Russia through the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines, from Azerbaijan through TANAP and from Iran. Hungary will continue to receive Russian gas through the Turkish Stream. There are also many reports that Turkey plays an important role in providing Russia with black imports of sanctioned goods. Therefore, there are reasons to fear that Turkey will sell Russian fuel to the EU under the guise of Turkish gas.
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Europe and gas
As of the beginning of 2022, the EU was 40% dependent on Russian gas. In 2021, 65% of the gas purchased by Germany was Russian. In the third quarter of 2023, only 12% of the gas imported by the EU remained Russian.
At the same time, some EU countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, remain dependent on Russian gas. These countries’ contracts with Gazprom provide for gas supplies through the Ukrainian GTS. For example, Austria signed a contract for gas supplies until 2040.
After both Nord Stream and the Ukrainian GTS are out of commission, Russia will be able to supply gas to Europe only through the Turkish Stream.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the European Union has bought 211 billion euros worth of energy from Russia.
